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Analysis: Resolving African Conflicts

Council on Foreign Relations

February 8, 2008
Author: Stephanie Hanson

Since its disputed election in December, Kenya has descended—with frightening speed—into angry mayhem. Supporters of opposition leader Raila Odinga are upset because they believe the election was stolen; ethnic groups are fighting one another over perceived economic injustices; some armed groups are little more than criminal gangs. As the population grows more polarized, efforts to resolve the political crisis look increasingly inadequate. Kenya’s impasse highlights the difficulty of conflict resolution on a continent that lacks regional leaders but whose complex crises tend to thwart international resolution efforts. The United States has increased pressure on Nairobi (NYT) to compromise, and while Kenya is not on the five-country itinerary of President Bush’s upcoming Africa visit, it’s sure to be on the agenda.

Kenya is just one of several continental calamities. On February 2, rebels attacked N’Djamena and attempted to overthrow Chad’s president. Across the border, the crisis in Sudan’s Darfur region that has displaced millions and left hundreds of thousand dead continues. In the same neighborhood are the conflict in Somalia, considered a failed state, and the border standoff between Ethiopia and Eritrea, which threatens to escalate into war.

African states that were once seen as continental leaders, such as Nigeria and South Africa, are preoccupied with domestic issues. “South Africa and Nigeria need time for internal reflection because previous presidents were very ambitious internationally,” says Alex Vines, head of the Africa program at Chatham House, a British think tank. This leaves a leadership void on the continent, according to some experts, and bodes poorly for long-term security. Mid-sized states such as Ghana and Tanzania show promise, but due to their limited financial resources, it is unlikely they will wield significant influence beyond their subregions.

The African Union suffers from the same lack of strong leadership.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.