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Analysis: Bush's Candor Marks Mideast Trip

Council on Foreign Relations

January 16, 2008
Author: Michael Moran

President George W. Bush’s eight-day trip through the Middle East lived up to its billing as a momentum-building exercise. The stated goal was “advancing the Israeli-Palestinian peace process,” as National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley put it January 9 en route to Israel. The trip’s other main aim, drumming up opposition to what Washington views as Iranian adventurism, wound up taking much more time than Bush spent in the Holy Land. As Hadley noted, “It’s still a little early in the process” to expect signing ceremonies.

“The process,” of course, refers to the talks launched by the Annapolis Conference last November and to the Joint Understanding signed by the Palestinian and Israeli leaders. Much has been said about the likelihood of an agreement by the end of Bush’s term in January 2009, a goal he restated during the trip. But less attention has been paid to the details of what is on the table. The Annapolis “understanding” requires the Palestinians and Israelis to implement “Phase 1” of Bush’s “Roadmap for Peace,” the 2003 initiative that unraveled after Hamas won Palestinian elections in 2006. Phase One requires Palestinians to “undertake visible efforts on the ground to arrest, disrupt, and restrain individuals and groups” from attacking Israel. Israel, for its part, must freeze all settlements and “immediately dismantle settlement outposts erected since March 2001.”

Bush’s visit brought new pledges from Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert on both counts. But Abbas, who no longer holds sway over Hamas-controlled Gaza, cannot stop Qassam rocket attacks on Israel that threatened further talks (al-Jazeera) even before Bush arrived back in Washington. Olmert, sounding more like an opposition leader than a government head, chided his own coalition (AP) for not abiding by past Israeli pledges to dismantle illegal “outposts” in the West Bank.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.