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Analysis: Kenya's Politics of Exclusion

Council on Foreign Relations

January 8, 2008
Author: Stephanie Hanson

The campaign for Kenya’s presidential election, which included candidate “branding” and the widespread use of text messaging (WashPost), seemed to herald a new openness in Nairobi’s politics. Postelection mayhem turned that perception on its head. Following accusations that President Mwai Kibaki had rigged the December 30 vote, the government suspended news broadcasts, hundreds of Kenyans were killed, and hundreds of thousands were displaced. Jendayi Frazer, the top U.S. State department official for Africa, said: “The people of Kenya have been cheated” (FT). At best, Kenya now faces the prospect of a government that has lost the confidence of its people. At worst, the country faces a protracted political stalemate or further outbreaks of violence.

Pressure from the United States, Europe, and the African Union has yet to yield a solution from either Kibaki or opposition leader Raila Odinga. Analysts are now discussing the possibility of a power-sharing arrangement between the two. But any such solution could leave a host of problems in its wake. At their root is the common perception that the government primarily helps its cronies, not the general population. Although Kenya has enjoyed strong economic growth under Kibaki, over half the population remains under the poverty line. Anger at this fact is reflected in an election slogan of Odinga's party: “It’s our turn to eat” (ISN). Some experts say that to address social and economic inequality, Kenya needs to change its constitution (VOA). Kenya must “introduce systems that entrench the politics of inclusion,” writes Jaindi Kisero in the Nairobi-based East African.

The urgency of the situation is only magnified by the critical role Kenya plays geopolitically. Like Nigeria and South Africa, Kenya is considered an “anchor state” by diplomats.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.