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Fuller: Despite Apparent Reelection, Saakashvili's Popularity Not High

Council on Foreign Relations

Interviewee: Elizabeth Fuller, Radio Liberty/Radio Free Europe
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor

January 7, 2008

Elizabeth Fuller, an expert on Georgian affairs, says despite his apparent reelection as Georgia’s president, Mikhail Saakashvili finds his popularity flagging. Fuller, an analyst for Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), the U.S.-funded foreign language broadcaster, points to the fact that Saakashvili reportedly won about 52 percent of the vote on Sunday, which translates to about 27 percent of the electorate. By contrast, in 2004 he won 96 percent of the vote, in an election with much higher turnout.

Last November, after a major protest in the streets by the opposition, President Mikhail Saakashvili of Georgia announced a snap presidential election that took place this last weekend, many months ahead of schedule. The official results have him winning with slightly more than half the votes, which is enough to avoid a runoff election. What do you think about this vote? In particular, what does it show about his popularity vis-à-vis the opposition? Since the last time we spoke, in November, do you think his popularity has sharply dropped?

Saakashvili’s description of the vote was “a landslide,” but it was definitely not the endorsement he was presumably hoping for in November when he scheduled the elections. The voter turnout was just 56 percent. Of that 56 percent, around 51 percent, or perhaps a bit more, voted for Saakashvili. That translates into 26 or 27 percent of the potential voters who actually chose to endorse him. If you compare that with the 2004 elections, the voter turnout was almost 90 percent and Saakashvili got 96 percent of the vote. The number of people who voted for him this weekend was something like a third of the number that voted for him four years ago. That to my mind is the best possible demonstration of the extent to which his popularity has plummeted.

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Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.