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Erlanger: Low Israeli Expectations for Bush Middle East Trip

Council on Foreign Relations

Interviewee: Steven Erlanger, Chief Jerusalem Correspondent, New York Times
Interviewer: Bernard Gwertzman, Consulting Editor

January 7, 2008

Steven Erlanger, the New York Times’ chief correspondent in Jerusalem since 2004, says that despite Israeli fondness for their “great friend,” U.S. President George W. Bush, there is no expectation that his trip to the Middle East next week, or the Annapolis peace process, will bear much fruit. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas both know privately that concessions will have to be made to work out a peace agreement, Erlanger says, but “they are both too politically weak now to discuss honestly with their own populations the kinds of concessions that would be required to reach a peace.”

President Bush flies to the Middle East next week for a nine-day visit following up on the Annapolis Middle East peace conference last November. He starts in Israel, where he will spend three days shuttling between Israel and the West Bank, meeting with Israeli and Palestinian officials, and doing some sightseeing as well. What’s the mood in Israel and the Palestinian areas since the peace conference ended with a call for stepped up negotiations leading to a two-state solution for Israel and Palestinians?

In Israel, George Bush is considered a great friend, and most Israelis are happy when an American president comes. President Bill Clinton visited Israel four times as president, but this is Bush’s first, and the first by a president since Clinton came at the end of 1998. But nobody, especially on the Israeli side, expects much to come out of this visit—or, frankly, out of the Annapolis peace process.

What is on the Israelis’ minds?

Israelis are very nervous about Iran. They were very unhappy with the recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran, at least the public version [which stated that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003].

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Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.