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Analysis: Morass in Somalia Deepens

Council on Foreign Relations

Updated: December 29, 2006
Prepared by: Stephanie Hanson

For the past sixteen years, Somalia has been widely acknowledged—and ignored—as a failed state. Now, the world is finally paying attention to the Horn of Africa. Somalia is a “feral nation,” (LAT) writes former CIA Case Officer Garrett Jones; the “hot new front in the war on terrorism,” according to the Washington Post. Observers warn the battle between Somalia’s Islamic Courts and Ethiopian troops threatens to pull in neighboring countries and Muslim extremists. Ethiopia’s superior military, which enjoys the tacit support of Washington, has forced the Islamists to withdraw from Mogadishu, but analysts are concerned about the ensuing power vacuum (CSMonitor). Some anticipate these radicals will reemerge and wage guerrilla war (LAT), not unlike what the United States faces in Iraq. Others anticipate the return of the warlords who controlled Mogadishu before the rise of the Islamic Courts.

Though publicly it has pushed for the Islamists to return to the negotiating table, the United States has signaled it backs Ethiopia’s offensive in Somalia (NYT). Since gaining control of Mogadishu in May, the Islamic Courts had consolidated power through much of Somalia until their swift rout by Ethiopia this week. Washington fears the country could emerge as a terrorist haven for Islamists with al-Qaeda ties (Reuters).

This fear dictates U.S. policy and undermines efforts to deescalate the crisis, writes Somalia expert Matt Bryden. Earlier this year, the United States supported Somali warlords calling themselves an “anti-terror” coalition, a policy widely criticized for facilitating the rise of the Islamic Courts. Most recently, a U.S.-backed Security Council Resolution, passed at the beginning of December, called for a regional peacekeeping force to protect the transitional government. The resolution was meant to avert war, but instead precipitated it.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.