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Analysis: Assassination Rocks Lebanon

Council on Foreign Relations

November 22, 2006
Prepared by: Eben Kaplan

Lebanon’s shaky political situation suffered a further blow with the assassination of Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel on the outskirts of Beirut (Daily Star). Gemayel, a prominent Christian who was an outspoken critic of Syria, was gunned down at a time when the Shiite Hezbollah movement is trying to gain more influence in the government. As a result of Hezbollah’s play for power, six ministers quit their posts earlier this month. According to Lebanese law, if eight ministers leave the cabinet loses its right to govern. Gemayel’s murder leaves the nation’s government dangling by a thread (LAT). That thread came perilously close to giving way yesterday: Shots were reportedly fired at the offices of Michel Pharaon, Lebanon’s minister for parliamentary affairs (NYT).

Most Lebanese suspect Syrian involvement (Guardian). Saad Hariri, a member of parliament and son of slain former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, said, “We believe the hand of Syria is all over the place” (ISN). Syria is already under investigation by the UN for the assassination of the elder Hariri last year. Hours after Gemayel was gunned down, the UN Security Council voted to establish a special tribunal to try those responsible for the death of the former Lebanese leader.

In a new podcast, CFR Mideast expert Steven A. Cook says the hit on Gemayel marks a reemergence of Syrian influence in Lebanon and could provide Hezbollah with a chance to wield greater power. Daily Star editor Rami Khouri tells NPR’s All Things Considered that Gemayel’s killing takes place in the context of a larger struggle, between Iran, Syria, and Hezbollah on one side and the Lebanese government, the United States, and UN investigators on the other.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.