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Analysis: Somalia Exporting Discord

Council on Foreign Relations

November 16, 2006
Prepared by: Eben Kaplan

Over the past year, developments in Somalia have fueled fears that a growing Islamist movement could spawn regional instability and provide safe haven for terrorists. But a new report by the UN Monitoring Group on Somalia claims that nation’s throes could have a graver global impact. According to the report, around 720 battle-hardened Somali militants traveled to Lebanon to fight alongside Hezbollah (NYT) in the month-long war against Israel last summer. Even more worrisome, the report suggests Iran attempted to exchange arms (Telegraph) for the rights to exploit Somalia’s modest uranium cache.

But experts and diplomats alike were skeptical of the report, and many of the countries accused of violating the UN arms embargo against Somalia have denied its allegations (Daily Star). The suggestion that Somali fighters aided Hezbollah seems to bolster fears that Somalia’s Islamists will provide active support to major terrorist organizations, while accounts of Syrian and Iranian support for Somali jihadis underscore those states’ willingness to oppose U.S. interests outside their traditional spheres of influence. But in the face of scant evidence, one diplomat anonymously told the Guardian the UN report provides a “very useful propaganda tool” for Western hawks.

Indeed, the report does beg some questions. Though Somalia is an Islamic nation, the predominantly Sunni population seems an unlikely recipient of Shiite Iran’s assistance. Experts also wonder how, amid intense international focus on the Lebanon war, the presence of hundreds of Somali fighters went unnoticed by international observers and media.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.