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Analysis: Somali Strife Imperils Africa's Horn

Council on Foreign Relations

October 17, 2006
Prepared by: Eben Kaplan

Media coverage of Somalia in recent months has often focused on the East African nation’s potential to become a terrorist haven after a growing Islamist movement, backed by a powerful militia, began expanding its power and territorial control. But now it appears the more immediate threat in the Horn of Africa is the possibility that Somalia’s internal power struggle could spill across its borders, sparking a regional conflict. Widespread reports suggest Ethiopian troops are guarding the city of Baidoa, where Somalia’s internationally recognized but ineffective Transitional Federal Government has taken refuge. More recently, Ethiopian soldiers have accompanied government forces on missions to secure territory (AP). In response to what it sees as an invasion, the Union of Islamist Courts (UIC) declared a jihad against Ethiopia (Economist).

Making matters worse, Ethiopia’s longtime rival, Eritrea, moved 1,500 troops into a buffer zone along the nations’ mutual border on October 16. A UN spokesman called the move "a major breach of the ceasefire" that was put in place in 2000 after Ethiopia and Eritrea fought a three-year war along the same border. Additionally, Eritrea stands accused of providing weapons shipments to Somalia’s Islamist militia in direct violation of a UN arms embargo. A Backgrounder looks at the border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Somalia and Ethiopia share a contentious history as well, having fought a war in the late 1970s, and the UIC’s claims of Ethiopian meddling resonates with many Somalis (AllAfrica.com). For its part, Ethiopia is concerned about the reemergence of a Somali irredentism that became dormant when Somalia’s last functioning government collapsed in 1991. As former U.S. Ambassador to Ethiopia David Shinn told a recent AEI meeting, both Ethiopia and Kenya have large indigenous Somali populations, which Somalia has made multiple efforts to incorporate since the 1960s.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.