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Analysis: Russia and the Frozen Wars

Council on Foreign Relations

September 6, 2006
Prepared by: Lionel Beehner

Separation anxiety abounds in the former Soviet Union. The empire's dissolution led to turmoil in parts of the north and south Caucasus, and the status of a number of important enclaves remains unsettled. Some call for more autonomy from Moscow, while others want closer ties. As on-and-off wars in Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh, and northern Georgia illustrate, at times, these so-called "frozen conflicts" have heated up; more often, though, they simmer beneath the surface, leaving restless nationals in their wake. Experts agree on one thing: The road to resolve these conflicts goes through Moscow.

Yet with ethnic Albanian Kosovars calling for independence from Serbia, Russia finds itself in a bind, writes Chris Stephen of the Institute for War and Peace Reporting. On one hand, Moscow supports, both with money and manpower, the struggles of separatists in Moldova's Trans-Dniester and Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia regions. Yet there is an obvious "wariness about encouraging separatism elsewhere." Russians are worried that if Chechnya breaks away from the federation, then Dagestan, Tatarstan, and other Russian republics would follow in domino-like fashion. Not to mention Russia does not want to anger its best friend in the Balkans, Serbia, which refuses to accept statehood for Kosovo.

For its part, Georgia is keen to come to an understanding with Russia on its separatist problems. The leaders who took office after the Rose Revolution struck a quick deal with Russia to resolve problems with the breakaway Ajaria region but Moscow-Tbilisi ties have deteriorated with Georgia's unification push.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.