Analysis: Truce Holding, Hard Part Still to Come
Council on Foreign Relations
August 15, 2006
Prepared by: Michael Moran
With the flow of blood largely staunched and the United Nations scrambling to put together a peacekeeping force for southern Lebanon (Globe and Mail), a few glimmers of hope have surfaced in the region. While the UN-mandated cease-fire continued to hold, Hezbollah’s leadership showed no signs it would commit to handing over its arms to the Lebanese government (JPost). As the Christian Science Monitor notes, UN Security Council Resolution 1701 makes no direct mention of Hezbollah disarming although it refers to a past resolution requiring all militias to give up their arms. Some, including CFR Senior Fellow Steven Simon, see the possibility of creating the kind of “decommissioning” system which brought relative peace to Northern Ireland (Daily Star).
Other analysts believe Hezbollah may emerge from this conflict stronger (LAT). A veteran Lebanese political analyst, Michael Young, tells CFR.org’s Bernard Gwertzman a deal among local parties is taking shape in which Hezbollah does not turn over its arms but keeps them hidden away. Among the losers, says Egypt ’s al-Ahram, are the despotic Sunni regimes allied to the United States, including Egypt itself, for failing to support Arab victims of Israeli attacks.
Meanwhile, Israeli forces have pulled out of parts of southern Lebanon and tens of thousands of Lebanese civilians flocked back to their homes, often to find only a pile of rubble (al-Jazeera).
Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.
Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.
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