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Analysis: Vying for Victory in the Middle East

Council on Foreign Relations

August 3, 2006
Prepared by: Esther Pan

As the battle between Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters rages on in Lebanon, each side is trying to position itself to emerge from the crisis claiming victory. Israel needs to be seen dealing Hezbollah a significant defeat, while the Lebanese militant group needs only to survive the crisis to declare victory, as this Backgrounder explains.

The current conflict poses particular danger to civilians, who make up most of the Lebanese casualty count of nearly 1,000 dead and more than 3,000 wounded (NYT). The Israeli campaign is bringing back harsh memories of the country's 1982 invasion of Lebanon, which stretched into an occupation that lasted nearly twenty years. Israel's use of force, which many international observers claim is disproportionate to the incident that prompted the crisis—a Hezbollah raid and abduction of two soldiers—is examined in this Backgrounder.

The Israeli public is strongly behind the war, and Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert says the military campaign will continue until an international peacekeeping force is deployed in Lebanon (BBC). But many outside observers are questioning Olmert's tactics and handling of the crisis. Military strategist Ralph Peters writes for the website IsraelInsider that Olmert has bungled the war effort and is causing Israel to lose the battle, both in the field and for international opinion. This Jerusalem Post analysis says the buffer zone Israel is seeking in southern Lebanon will not immediately offer security, since the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will have to clear Hezbollah cells from the territory before any international force can move in.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.