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Analysis: Mideast Conflict Rages On

Council on Foreign Relations

July 17, 2006
Prepared by: Esther Pan

The violence continues in the Middle East. More than 140 Lebanese, mostly civilians, have been killed (Daily Star) in Israeli attacks that followed Hezbollah's abduction of two Israeli soldiers last week. In response to Israeli strikes, Hezbollah has launched rockets ever deeper into Israeli territory, killing dozens. Many international observers criticize the Israeli offensive in Lebanon as a disproportionate response to the kidnapping. This CFR Backgrounder examines the doctrine of proportionality in relation to Israel. A Washington Post analysis says Israel is using the harsh measures to try to neutralize Hezbollah for good.

For its part, Hezbollah is trying to shatter the regional image of Israel's military strength and change the balance of power in the region (CSMonitor). The group's leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, profiled here by the Washington Post, declared "open war" on Israel (al-Jazeera). Although members of Hezbollah's political wing serve in Lebanon's Parliament and its cabinet, the group's allegiances to Iran and Syria subvert the goals of Lebanon's central government (NYT). CFR President Richard Haass told CBS News that Iran and Syria are using Hezbollah as a vehicle to get at Israel and advance their interests in the region.

This CSIS report by Anthony Cordesman says Syria and Iran both gain by this proxy war, which divides the United States and Europe, distracts international attention from Iran's nuclear program and Syria's continuing influence in Lebanon, and feeds Arab anger against the United States.

So far, Israel has not threatened to attack Syria directly (al-Jazeera). If it does, it faces the threat of retaliation from Iran, which many suspect has provided Hezbollah with the new, longer-range rockets the group is using to hit Israeli cities as far south of the border as Haifa (Haaretz).

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.