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Analysis: NATO Grapples with Afghan South

Council on Foreign Relations

July 10, 2006
Prepared by: Eben Kaplan

Nearly five years after a U.S.-led coalition toppled the Taliban government, security in Afghanistan remains tenuous and the country's future is uncertain. The last few months have seen a resurgence of Taliban forces that coincides with NATO's expanding role in security operations. NATO forces are engaged in a months-long effort to beat back the Taliban fighters, concentrated in the south of the country. The most recent episode of Operation Mountain Thrust, as it is called, killed some forty insurgent fighters (MSNBC). A New York Times interactive feature takes a close look at the campaign.

The size and effectiveness of the Afghan insurgency remain a bit unclear. Retired U.S. General Barry McCaffrey recently reported that despite some progress, Taliban forces are operating in ever-growing units (PDF). Both McCaffrey and Bill Roggio, a civilian blogger embedded with Western forces in Afghanistan, say Taliban fighters are still unable to stand up to Western militaries, and their real strength is their ability to blend into local populations and slip across the border into Pakistan. During her June 28 visit to Kabul, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spoke with RFE/RL about efforts to control this long, treacherous border, and the potential for Afghanistan's instability to spread into nearby nations. A recent report from the United States Institute of Peace (USIP) examines this "ever dangerous neighborhood" (PDF).

Guerrilla fighters are not the only trans-border threat. Afghanistan produces nearly 90 percent of the world's opium poppies (PDF) and though efforts to limit poppy production reduce the actual acreage cultivated, Western officials say this year's harvest could be the biggest ever (Asia Times).

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.