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Analysis: Abbas' Bold Gamble

Council on Foreign Relations

May 25, 2006
Prepared by: Esther Pan

If the Hamas government does not accept a document that implicitly recognizes Israel within ten days, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas says he will call a referendum and ask the Palestinian people to vote on the proposal (AP). The move is a bold effort to force Hamas leaders to recognize Israel; their refusal to do so or to renounce violence since winning power in the Palestinian Authority (PA) elections in January prompted a cutoff of international aid that threatens the PA with financial strangulation. That, in turn, is causing massive internal unrest. Abbas is betting the referendum will pass, ratcheting up pressure on Hamas to agree to the terms. A recent poll shows most Palestinians favor negotiating with Israel (CSMonitor).

The proposal being put to voters is a five-page draft negotiated in prison by prominent jailed leaders of both Fatah and Hamas. Marwan Barghouti, perhaps the most popular Palestinian leader, was instrumental in its creation (Haaretz). It calls for a Palestinian state to exist next to Israel in the Gaza Strip, West Bank, and East Jerusalem, including on land captured by Israel in the 1967 Six-Day war. It calls for a Palestinian unity government, states that Jerusalem should be the capital of a Palestinian state, and allows for a negotiated settlement to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict if Israel withdraws to the so-called 1967 borders. "All the Palestinians...agree we want a Palestinian state on the 1967 borders," Abbas said Thursday. The idea has support in the Arab world: a similar proposal, known as the Arab Peace Initiative, called for Israel to withdraw to the 1967 borders and accept returning Palestinian refugees.

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Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.