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Russia: How Does Moscow View Frozen CIS Conflicts?

Russia appears to support the May 21 Montenegrin independence referendum as a potential model for resolving some separatist conflicts in its own neighborhood -- namely, the regions that enjoy Moscow's support in their pursuit of independence from Moldova and Georgia. But its own separatist conflicts are a different matter -- particularly in Chechnya, where no Montenegro-style referendum is likely. RFE/RL Moscow correspondent Claire Bigg asked Yevgeny Volk, the director of the Heritage Foundation think tank in Moscow, whether Russia has a double standard on the issue of separatist conflicts.

RFE/RL: The Russian Foreign Ministry said on May 23 it respected Montenegro's vote to seek independence from Serbia. Abkhazia and Transdniester, two breakaway regions backed by Russia, have also hailed the historic poll as an inspiring model. Will Russia be tempted to apply the Montenegrin experience to Moscow-friendly frozen conflict regions?

Yevgeny Volk: Tbilisi will certainly not allow referendums to be held in Abkhazia or in South Ossetia, and the international community will, of course, be on the Georgian government's side. If Russia tries to push for referendums, it will end up being isolated and neither the OSCE nor the UN will support its efforts. It is a very unlikely option because it represents a direct path to armed conflict.

RFE/RL: Despite welcoming Montenegro's independence vote and urging the nation to engage in a "constructive, good-willed, and wide-ranging dialogue" with Serbia, Russia is very unlikely to sanction a similar referendum in Chechnya. Does this amount to a double standard?

Volk: Russia supports referendums where it is advantageous, where it advances its own interests -- but in no circumstances inside the country, where such referendums could yield the most unexpected results, even despite massive control and manipulation of public opinion.

RFE/RL: Is a similar referendum possible at all in Chechnya, and would it enjoy Western support like Montenegro's independence vote?

Volk: Today, the issue of a referendum in Chechnya is purely hypothetical, so in this context it is too early to talk about the West's stance. Chechnya is now under total Russian control. In my opinion, even if such a referendum took place in Chechnya, its results would be known in advance since free and fair elections cannot be expected there

Copyright (c) 2006. RFE/RL, Inc. Reprinted with the permission of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036. www.rferl.org