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Analysis: U.S. Finesses Olmert Plan

Council on Foreign Relations

Updated: May 24, 2006
Prepared by: Esther Pan

Ehud Olmert's meeting with George W. Bush at the White House, and his address to a joint session of Congress Wednesday, marked an important step in his affirmation as Ariel Sharon's successor (Haaretz). In the meeting, and the news conference which followed, Bush reaffirmed his determination to keep the government led by Hamas in diplomatic isolation, and he lent general support to Olmert's plan for further unilateral withdrawals from occupied territories (al-Jazeera termed it "muted backing.") Bush asked, though, that Israel exhaust all efforts engage Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas directly (BBC). Importantly, as Haaretz analyst Aluf Benn notes, both men insisted such withdrawals "would not determine permanent borders, which would only be set after a final status agreement between Israel and the Palestinians."

Nonetheless, Olmert's "convergence plan" for unilateral withdrawal is widely seen as an attempt to set Israel's future borders. In an interview with the New York Times, Olmert insisted he will consult the Palestinians before making moves that could affect the borders. Yet, even as Ynet commentator Nahum Barnea declared that "Olmert passed the audition," the U.S. had its own concerns. On Iran, that Israel maintain a low profile and make no provocative move. And, Barnea says, "They are worried about a vacuum being created in the Palestinian territories after an Israeli pullout, about the impression of a Hamas victory that will be created in the Arab world, about Israeli actions that will thwart chances for a peace agreement in the future." The Saudi-owned paper Arab News puts Bush's dilemma this way: "The administration is trying to win European support for unified action to impede Iran’s nuclear ambitions, but many European officials fear Olmert’s plan is an attempt by Israel to set permanent borders without negotiation with the Palestinians."

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.