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Analysis: Nigeria's Democratic Victory

Council on Foreign Relations

May 23, 2006
Prepared by: Alexandra Silver

It may be too early to talk of a precedent in the decision of Nigeria's Senate to reject a move to allow the president to run for a third term (VOA). Yet, on a continent where autocrats, conflict, and failing states are not unusual, the decision, made in the face of intense political pressure, was greeted with much optimism locally and abroad. Freedom House expressed praise and the New York Times called it "a shining example for the rest of the continent."

President Olusegun Obasanjo denied orchestrating the amendment effort, calling its failure a "victory for democracy" (Nigerian Tribune). The will of the people does seem to have been heeded; polls suggest that 84 percent of Nigerians opposed the extension of term limits. Some, however, are skeptical, saying that Nigeria's "democracy remains on trial" (Vanguard).

This is hardly the first time an African president has sought to overstay his term limits (Reuters). Several other African leaders, including Uganda's Yoweri Museveni earlier this year, have changed constitutional law to extend term limits. Others have failed to do so. Zambia's Frederick Chiluba bowed to popular pressure in 2001 and left after two terms. Constitutional changes that would have allowed Malawi's Bakili Muluzi to run for a third term in 2003 were also resisted. Princeton Lyman, CFR's senior fellow for Africa policy studies, said Obasanjo's quick acceptance of the Senate's decision "sends a message across the continent."

Obasanjo, a former military leader who led Nigeria in the 1970s before transferring power to a civilian government, helped return Nigeria to the democratic fold (BBC) in 1999 after years of military rule. The country has a rocky political history, as this Congressional Research Service report explains.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.