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Analysis: Montenegro Weighs Independence

Council on Foreign Relations

May 18, 2006
Prepared by: Lee Hudson Teslik

Montenegro has set a May 21 referendum on final independence from Serbia. Opinion surveys show a majority intending to vote for separation, but independence is no sure thing. Under EU-brokered regulations, a 55 percent majority will be needed to move ahead with secession, and polls show the pro-separatists' margin in a “gray zone,” between 50 and 55 percent (Serbianna). Milo Djukanovic, Montenegro's pro-independence prime minister, has said that he will move ahead toward secession even with just a simple majority. But analysts say such a scenario could "haunt" the region (Axis Globe), undermining the legitimacy of the standing government while not providing a clear path forward.

Should the vote succeed, however, tiny Montenegro, often overlooked in a tumultuous neighborhood, could open a final phase in the crumbling of the former Yugoslavia. All that remains of the federation is a two-country union, officially named " Serbia and Montenegro," which encompasses Kosovo, the ethnic Albanian-dominated province that is also seeking national sovereignty. A number of experts now predict a Kosovar solution in the near future, though most do not believe Montenegro's elections will have much of an effect on that process. A December 2005 report by the International Crisis Group emphasizes that the results of Montenegro's referendum should have no bearing on Kosovo's campaign for independence. Serbs, at least, seem markedly pessimistic about their prospects of retaining control, particularly in Montenegro; in a recent survey by the Balkan news agency DTT-net, 56 percent say they believe Montenegro would gain independence.

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Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.