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UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs |
SUDAN: Peace deal collapse would be catastrophic for Darfur
NAIROBI, 5 May 2006 (IRIN) - As world leaders pressured parties involved in the Darfur conflict to sign on to a peace deal, analysts and experts warned of disastrous consequences should negotiations break down.
"If they don’t sign, the horrors of the last years will be redoubled. Few doubt that Khartoum’s ‘Plan B’ is anything other than a large-scale military offensive," said Alex de Waal, advisor to the African Union mediation team overseeing the peace talks taking place this week in the Nigerian capital Abuja.
"As local clashes escalate, more tribal militia mobilise,” he added. “Darfurian elders warn of a Hobbesian war of all against all. Next door, Chad is spiralling into civil war that involves Darfurian factions, too. We are on the precipice of a regional maelstrom."
The United Nations Children’s Fund (Unicef) representative in Sudan, Ted Chaiban, said a peace pact was essential to bring back a degree of stability to Darfur and allow humanitarian organisations to do their work. "If we do not get an agreement, the fighting will continue, with various factions jockeying for positions, leading to more displacement and a continuation of the deterioration of the economy," Chaiban warned. "The net result will be that the gains in terms of lower mortality rates will be reversed."
Malnutrition rates - which the large humanitarian operation in Darfur had managed to bring down from 22 percent in 2004 to about 11 percent in 2005 - were going up again. "A recent nutritional survey in South Darfur found acute malnutrition rates above 15 percent," he said. "Admissions to supplementary feeding centres are up by 20 percent."
The UN World Food Programme announced on Friday that food rations to more than 2 million vulnerable people in Darfur would be cut due to a large shortfall in funding, reducing the daily rations to as little as 1,050 kilocalories - half the minimum daily requirement of 2,100 kilocalories per person.
Over the past three months alone, 200,000 people had been newly displaced due to the pervasive insecurity, on top of the 1.6 million already displaced. Jan Egeland, UN Under Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs, observed during his latest briefing to the Security Council in April that more than 3 million people were in need of daily humanitarian assistance, with 210,000 of those requiring food urgently.
"Already, we estimate that about 700,000 people from affected areas cannot be reached on a regular basis," Chaiban added.
Three deadlines for a peace agreement came and went in Abuja this week despite intense efforts by international diplomats, led by US Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick. In a breakthrough on Friday morning that followed an all-night session of talks, the largest faction of the SLA, under the leadership of Minni Minnawi, agreed to sign on to the deal “with reservations”.
But another faction of the Sudan Liberation Army (SLA), led by Abdel Wahed Mohammed al-Nur, as well as the smaller Justice and Equality Movement (JEM), were still unhappy about the terms of a peace settlement drafted by African Union mediators and amended by Western diplomats.
"Axiomatic to a negotiated end to a war is that each side comes to terms with its former enemy," De Waal said. "Many Darfurians still choke on this. After what they have suffered, it is understandable."
Although the rebel movements argued that the AU proposal falls well short of their demands and is a sell-out to Khartoum, de Waal urged them to examine carefully what the deal had to offer.
"The African Union’s Darfur peace agreement is not only a good deal on paper, but is workable on the ground," de Waal said. "If those leaders sign the deal today, the people of Darfur can begin their long journey back to peace and normality."
The UN deputy humanitarian coordinator in Sudan, Gemmo Lodesani, warned, however, that a political settlement depended on the parties’ willingness to carry it out and a robust peacekeeping force to oversee its implementation. He was particularly concerned whether local commanders in the field would accept a political agreement, especially when their leaders were split on the issue themselves.
"We have serious doubts whether they [the rebel leaders] can control their forces. It is not evident at all," he said by telephone from Khartoum. "Noncompliance without good monitoring and robust enforcement will further exacerbate violence rather than move towards a solution."
[ENDS]
This material comes to you via IRIN, a UN humanitarian information unit, but may not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its agencies. If you re-print, copy, archive or re-post this item, please retain this credit and disclaimer. Quotations or extracts should include attribution to the original sources. All materials copyright © UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2006
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