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UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs |
COTE D IVOIRE: Too early for optimism as biggest obstacles to peace remain
ABIDJAN, 22 Mar 2006 (IRIN) - Seven months ahead of the deadline for a pivotal presidential election in war-divided Cote d’Ivoire Prime Minister Charles Konan Banny has navigated some significant stumbling blocks to peace since he took office in December, but the greatest challenges lie ahead.
Banny has breathed new life into Cote d’Ivoire’s ailing peace process, analysts say, but they warn that the former banker still has much to do, including disarming thousands of rebel and pro-government fighters and ensuring that millions of potential voters receive long-awaited identification papers before elections can take place.
“There have been positive developments and clearly there has been a change in Cote d’Ivoire since the end of 2005 and the arrival of Charles Konan Banny,” said Gilles Yabi of the conflict resolution think-tank International Crisis Group.
“But on the ground we have not seen these steps turned into action regarding disarmament and identification – all is still to be done,” Yabi added.
A failed coup d’etat in September 2002 plunged Cote d’Ivoire into crisis and the country has been split between a government-controlled south and rebel-held north ever since, with some 11,000 UN and French troops maintaining a shaky calm.
After the country failed to organise presidential elections in October 2005, African Union and UN mediators selected Banny, former head of the West African central bank, as prime minister. With extensive powers and international backing Banny got to work on 7 December with the clock ticking on a new election deadline of October 2006.
The path to peace....
For the first time since war erupted, Banny brought President Laurent Gbagbo and leaders of the armed and political opposition face-to-face on Ivorian soil at a meeting in the capital Yamoussoukro in early March.
Banny has installed a new cabinet and last week rebel leader Guillaume Soro – whom Banny offered the number-two post in government – attended his first cabinet meeting in over a year.
Under Banny, students in the rebel-held north have been allowed to sit exams for the first time since the country was split in two.
The UN High Representative for Elections, Antonia Monteiro, quit the main city Abidjan on Friday after working with Banny to resuscitate the Independent Electoral Commission that will organise the delayed polls.
Under Banny, Alassane Ouattara returned from exile to carry the flag for the opposition Rally of the Republicans party in the forthcoming elections. He joins Henri Konan Bedie, ousted from the presidency in the country’s only successful coup in 1999, who returned to Cote d’Ivoire in September and plans to run as the Democratic Party of Cote d’Ivoire (PDCI) candidate.
“The atmosphere has relaxed remarkably, tension has decreased,” said one western diplomat based in the main city Abidjan. “All the leaders are back… everybody is trying to look good, to look cooperative.”
And Crisis Group’s Yabi says Banny’s handling of a particularly difficult period in January - when pro-government militants attacked UN and French installations across the government-held south – has only strengthened his hand.
“That Banny was able to regain power after these violent demonstrations in January is very important – we can see that he has not been weakened by these events,” added Yabi.
...is potted with pitfalls
But with seven months to go before polling day the government still has to identify an estimated 3 million Ivorians who do not have nationality documents, much less voting cards, and disarm tens of thousands of rebel and pro-government fighters.
“Things are very fragile and the most difficult has yet to be done: identification and disarmament. Then we will see if Banny’s method is going to work,” one western diplomat said.
Voting rights and access to crucial national ID documents were among the main factors pushing many northern-born soldiers to join the 2002 rebellion. Northerners claim they are marginalised by the southern-dominated government, including in the armed forces.
On the streets of the rebel-held north, fighters insist that they will not hand over their weapons until they have their documents in hand.
“It is not a question of democracy,” New Forces rebel spokesman Sidiki Konate recently told IRIN. “It’s about identity - you have to fight the system,” he said, referring to perceptions that national institutions are stacked against northerners.
On Sunday Banny broadcast a ‘balance sheet’ of his first 100 days in office. Speaking for over three hours, Banny recognised that disarmament remained vital to holding elections. But some diplomats question how he can disarm people who do not acknowledge his authority.
“Banny’s authority has not been acknowledged by the security forces. If we have new demonstrations with the security forces backing the patriots like we saw in January, Banny will have to sanction [the army] Chief of Staff, [Philippe] Mangou,” said a western diplomat.
And while Banny said in his address that one of the main reasons for his success was a good working relationship with President Gbagbo, Crisis Group’s Yabi is less sure that the unity among the main players will continue as election day approaches.
“The objective of all the main players is to gain power. All of them are to contest the coming election and all want to win. If they are not sure that they will win then Cote d’Ivoire is not going to elections,” said Yabi.
President Gbagbo has said he will be seeking re-election for the Ivorian Patriotic Front (FPI), against Bedie and Ouattara – both political veterans with a solid support base.
Among the nation’s top players only rebel leader Soro has announced no presidential aspirations – yet. At 33 he is constitutionally too young to contest the presidency and is expected to throw his weight behind Ouattara, who has a strong following in the north.
But Banny remains upbeat about the tasks ahead.
“I will do everything to bring us to elections before 30 October,” he promised in his weekend broadcast.
“I am not anybody’s man, I am my own man. It is true, I came with a style, a manner, a method, but it is the only way to tackle this crisis. I am a catalyst for confidence.”
[ENDS]
This material comes to you via IRIN, a UN humanitarian information unit, but May not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its agencies. If you re-print, copy, archive or re-post this item, please retain this credit and disclaimer. Quotations or extracts should include attribution to the original sources. All materials copyright © UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2006
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