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UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs |
ERITREA-ETHIOPIA: Year in Review 2005 - Unresolved border tensions
NAIROBI, 11 Jan 2006 (IRIN) - The five-year unresolved border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea remained a major challenge as 2005 drew to a close.
Diplomats were ambivalent. While some said the two countries were unlikely to immediately go to war unless "something stupid, like an accidental shot, triggers off a fight," others said rising tensions and sabre-rattling between the leaders could climax in a clash.
The United Nations, whose peacekeeping operations were restricted by Eritrea in November and December, said the signs were worrying. Matters were not helped that in November, Eritrea imposed a ban on all UN helicopter flights over its territory, hampering the ability of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) to monitor the border.
"This potentially volatile situation could lead to a renewed outbreak of war," said Maj-Gen Rajender Singh, commander of the UN peacekeeping force in the region, in November.
Despite reassurances by Ethiopia that it was willing to pull back some of its troops from the border region, where an estimated 380,000 troops from both sides are entrenched, hundreds of thousands of soldiers still face each other in a volatile standoff.
Both countries, according to the UN, have moved troops and hardware to the common border, and the growing spectre of war casts a disturbing shadow.
It is a grim reminder of the 1998-2000 scenario when the two neighbours went to war over a territorial dispute, resulting in the death of tens of thousands of soldiers from both sides.
As part of a deal to end the war, the two countries agreed to form an independent boundary commission, whose decision on the demarcation of the disputed border would be final and binding.
Made up of five lawyers appointed by both countries, the commission drafted a new map, indicating the physical demarcation of the frontier. The ruling, in April 2002, awarded the border town of Badme, where the conflict began, to Eritrea.
While Eritrea accepted the decision, Ethiopia did not. After years of wrangling, Ethiopia announced in 2004 that it would accept "in principle" the border ruling, but the situation on the ground has remained the same.
In March 2005, the boundary commission suspended its operations, citing Ethiopian intransigence.
Some analysts believe the two countries are using the border stalemate to divert attention from more pressing domestic issues - a political crisis in Ethiopia and an economic decline in Eritrea.
Ethiopia's political crisis
At the start of 2005, a wave of optimism swept through Ethiopia as its citizens prepared to take part in parliamentary elections on 15 May. Opposition parties were vocal, and lively political debate dominated cafés, television and newspapers.
For the first time, the tightly controlled state media opened up the airwaves and broadcast the views of the political parties challenging the 14-year grip on power by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF).
At election time, the situation changed dramatically.
Although some 22 million people turned out to vote - representing 90 percent of the electorate - the polling day euphoria was soon replaced by accusations of vote rigging.
Political violence erupted in June and in November, leaving dozens dead and thousands under arrest. Many opposition leaders were languishing in jail by the end of the year.
Foreign donors reviewed their aid packages for Ethiopia, Africa's largest aid recipient - in particular, the US $375 million in budgetary support which was due to be given to the Ethiopian government for the September 2005 to September 2006 financial year.
As 2005 ended, diplomats feared that if the government and opposition did not resolve their differences, then Ethiopia - Africa's third most populous country with 77 million people - could slide into civil war.
"If the country continues to ignore the opposition, not to release the people it detained, not to open political dialogue, then what we are looking at is perhaps a country that down the road could turn into a failed state," a senior western diplomat said in December.
Feted by Western leaders, 49-year-old Zenawi had been billed as a progressive reformer. The May elections were seen as a key test of his commitment to reform. Once described by former United States President Bill Clinton as a "part of a new generation of [African] leaders," he now faces a tough test in showing that those credentials remain intact. Zenawi has blamed the violence on the opposition, and an inquiry - which opposition parties have already condemned as a whitewash - has been launched.
Although quiet appeared to have returned to parts of the country by the end of the year, fear still pervades Addis Ababa, the capital city, which is home to some four million people. Little information emerges from Ethiopia's remote regions.
A number of private newspapers have closed since November. Around 12 publishers, editors and journalists have been arrested, and the state-run media has resorted to verbal attacks against the opposition, claiming they were instigating violence.
In November, state television broadcast names and pictures of prominent individuals it said were behind the unrest and urged the public to hand them over to the police. Hundreds went into hiding, fearful of what many human rights organisations say is a government crackdown against all political dissent.
While most blame the unrest on the disputed elections, alleged vote rigging by the ruling party and political agitation by opposition forces, its roots go much deeper.
Most Ethiopians live in abject, almost unimaginable, poverty. Average annual incomes are just $100 a year. Half of all Ethiopian children are physically stunted due to hunger. Despite good harvests and rains in 2005, at least five million people were dependent on aid.
"People are angry because they are poor," said Yonas Abraham, a shopkeeper.
Continued distrust
The attitude of “either you are for us or against us” has hampered real and frank debate in Ethiopia. The ethnic suspicion that has crept more and more into the political agenda is potentially disastrous for the country.
Democracy itself is still a relatively new phenomenon. Until 1974, powerful emperors had ruled the country. Then Mengistu Haile Mariam seized control in a bloody coup and ruled until rebels led by Meles overthrew him in 1991 after a 17-year guerrilla war.
Observers had largely discounted two previous national elections in 1995 and 2000.
During the elections last year, Meles's party, the EPRDF, seemed confident of support from a population it had delivered from Mengistu's dictatorship and relied on official food aid. Its supporters, it believed, were the vast majority of illiterate rural peasants who make up 85 percent of the electorate.
As the poll results were announced, it emerged that EPRDF won control of nearly two-thirds of parliament. Opposition parties took 176 seats out of 547 in the lower house, up from the 12 won during the 2000 elections. Most observers agreed the results reflected dissatisfaction with Meles and his ruling party rather than support for the untested opposition.
Yet leaders of the main opposition, the Coalition for Unity and Democracy, believed they had won. Early results showed they had made landslide gains in the cities, while questionable reruns of some disputed votes cast further doubt in their mind that the vote had been fair. But the ruling party still took 12 million votes, compared with the opposition's seven million.
EU observers said the elections fell short of international standards and pointed to abuses in vote counts and the handling of complaints. Election observers accepted, however, that a five-million-vote lead by the ruling party did indicate a majority.
With the spotlight falling firmly on Ethiopia in 2005, greater scrutiny will be directed on its leader, who must resolve the current political crisis and border brinkmanship in 2006.
Eritrea's economic decline
For its part, Eritrea seems to have born the brunt of the border dispute.
"The costs of sustained mobilisation - both political and financial - are much more in evidence given Eritrea's small population," said Matt Bryden of the International Crisis Group (ICG) in December.
He said that nearly one-third of Eritrea's national territory had been designated as a temporary security zone and "given these pressures and that Eritrea is legally in the right, it is not surprising that signs of impatience with the lack of progress [in resolving the border dispute] have been growing in Asmara."
Eritrea appeared to be exercising brinkmanship to signal its frustration at the international community's inability to force Ethiopia to adhere to the boundary commission's ruling.
"These tactics are so far backfiring, since UNMEE - rather than the border - is now the focus of international attention, and Eritrea is likely to be cast in the role of aggressor," Bryden said.
Five years of consecutive drought, escalating global fuel prices, a deteriorating economy and the border standoff continued to impact negatively on the humanitarian situation in the country.
Food shortages hit much of the country in 2005.
In early May 2005, the government issued a policy proclamation of guidelines for NGOs and humanitarian agencies, which caused relations between the Eritrean government and the humanitarian community to deteriorate.
The number of people in need of food aid in 2005 stood at 2.3 million, but only 1.2 million had received regular food aid before the government suspended general distributions towards the end of the year, according to the UN.
Although the 2005 harvest was projected to be better than that of 2004, it was below the requirement of 612,000 tonnes. The government has stated its preference for self-reliance over food distributions, but distributions may resume in January 2006.
Matters are not helped that Eritrea will not be part of the UN’s 2006 global humanitarian appeal because of the government’s decision to reduce dependence on food aid. The government placed more emphasis on efforts towards sustainable, domestic-driven food security.
Globally, Eritrea grew increasingly isolated because of its tough stance towards the UN. By refusing to meet international delegations, Eritrean officials created an impression of a people not interested in diplomacy.
A report by the US State Department also pointed to religious repression, but the government denies it suppresses any religions. Media watchdogs also called Eritrea one of world's abusers of press freedom.
Outlook for 2006
Whether or not Ethiopia and Eritrea will resolve their border dispute without going to war will be a key issue in 2006.
2005 saw a steady deterioration of the situation. In December 2004, Ethiopia deployed additional armoured divisions near the border, and in March 2005 the boundary commission suspended its operations, citing Ethiopian intransigence.
In November, Eritrea imposed a helicopter flight ban on UNMEE, forcing peacekeepers to scale back operations by more than half. In December it demanded that some members of UNMEE be withdrawn.
The standoff between Asmara and the UN will continue in 2006 to divert attention away from the primary issues: demarcation of the border and normalisation of relations between Eritrea and Ethiopia.
Although neither country appears to want another war, increasing tension along the border could heighten the risk as 2006 starts.
The border stalemate seems to have hurt Eritrea more than Ethiopia, mainly because of Eritrea's smaller size and population. What Ethiopia sometimes describes as a "cold peace" with its neighbour, Eritrea perceives as a "cold war" of economic attrition. This situation is likely to continue in 2006.
[ENDS]
This material comes to you via IRIN, a UN humanitarian information unit, but May not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its agencies. If you re-print, copy, archive or re-post this item, please retain this credit and disclaimer. Quotations or extracts should include attribution to the original sources. All materials copyright © UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2006
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