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UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs |
ETHIOPIA-ERITREA: No end in sight for border standoff
ADDIS ABABA, 26 Oct 2005 (IRIN) - When the United Nations first deployed peacekeepers in Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2000 to monitor the cessation of hostilities between the two nations, UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan said he hoped the job could be done within a year.
The two nations had signed earlier that year the Algiers Agreement to end a two-and-a-half year war, following talks led by Algeria and the Organization of African Unity (now the African Union). However, five years on, the military standoff between the two Horn of Africa neighbours over their disputed border shows no sign of abating.
Urgent need to revive political process
Analysts have warned that conflict could worsen without fresh talks. "The deterioration of the situation between the two countries is alarming and significantly raises the risk of conflict along the common border," said Matt Bryden of the International Crisis Group, a global think-tank.
"In the absence of a political dialogue, unilateral actions by one party or the other will serve to increase tensions and destabilise the situation further," he told IRIN on Friday.
"There is an urgent need to revive the political process with a view to reaching a peaceful solution, while respecting the integrity of the Boundary Commission's decision," he added. The Commission was set up under the Algiers Agreement to determine the disputed border.
Troop build-ups by both countries and Eritrea's recent decision to render UN peacekeepers "almost useless" by banning patrols and helicopter flights have only served to heighten those fears. Relations between the two countries have not improved since the war erupted in May 1998.
Annan warned on Monday that the indefinite ban could force the United Nations Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE) to pull out altogether. Its 3,300 peacekeepers cost some US $200 million a year.
The deadlock has grown out of a failure to implement the decision of the Boundary Commission. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi told journalists on 15 October that without "dialogue" it would be impossible to agree on the border. "As soon as [Eritrea is] ready to engage us in dialogue we will be very glad to engage to find a lasting solution," said Meles.
Solution that has a lasting effect
"You could implement the decision [of the Boundary Commission] by dissecting villages left, right and centre and creating a permanent source of tension, or ...on the basis of give and take - mutual understanding - try and find a solution that has a lasting effect as far as peace is concerned," he added.
Eritrea has rejected talks on the grounds that its larger neighbour intends to use them to opt out of some of the more unpleasant aspects of the ruling of the Boundary Commission - most notably the decision to award it the Ethiopian-administered town of Badme. The initial skirmishes of the war flared up in the symbolic town and for both sides it was the moral justification for the war.
Since December, Ethiopia has deployed up to seven army divisions within 25 km to 45 km of the Temporary Security Zone (TSZ) - a demilitarised buffer zone around the border - and ignored UN Security Council requests to withdraw them.
"The status quo suits Ethiopia," said Medhane Tadesse, a political analyst based in Addis Ababa. "Time is running out for Eritrea because they cannot sustain the stalemate, politically, economically or militarily."
Breach of international law
Ten percent of the Eritrean population - estimated by diplomats at more than 300,000 men and women - have been conscripted into the armed forces, draining an already beleaguered economy of a significant chunk of its workforce. More than half the population is in need of food aid.
Eritrean sources told IRIN their position is that in 2002 both sides agreed to appoint an independent Boundary Commission, and to accept the commission's decision as "binding". The Commission announced its decision in 2002 and Ethiopia refused to accept it.
"There's nothing to discuss or to negotiate. Ethiopia is in clear breach of international law and currently occupying Eritrean territory," a source added.
Observers note that while Eritrea has the legal high ground, Ethiopia has far better relations with the West. Meles is feted by the international community and was appointed by UK Prime Minister Tony Blair to the Commission for Africa. Analysts also point to Ethiopia's strategic position in the Horn, its proximity to Somalia and its role in the US-led war on terror as key in helping it maintain good relations.
The Security Council has backed Meles's call for dialogue. However, his reputation came under the spotlight earlier this year when his party was accused of rigging parliamentary elections and his security forces of killing scores of demonstrators protesting the conduct of the vote.
Capacity to warn of war in advance
But Meles still enjoys better relations with the West than does Eritrean President Isayas Afewerki. The Eritrean leader has refused to meet UN special envoy Lloyd Axworthy, who was appointed to break the deadlock in early 2004, and UNMEE's head, Ambassador Legwaila Joseph Legwaila of Botswana has not met Issayas for two years.
Legwaila has called on foreign powers to do more to find a political solution, noting that the restrictions on patrolling meant UNMEE has lost its ability to warn of the possibility of renewed conflict.
"The incident of the helicopters has made us almost useless, or only 40 percent useful, but we need to be 100 percent useful in order to justify the amount of money the UN is spending to keep us here," he said.
"The world from now on must know that we are unable to see a lot of the places that we are supposed to see to be useful. [We do not have the capacity] to be able to warn the international community in advance that war is about to break out," he added.
[ENDS]
This material comes to you via IRIN, a UN humanitarian information unit, but May not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its agencies. If you re-print, copy, archive or re-post this item, please retain this credit and disclaimer. Quotations or extracts should include attribution to the original sources. All materials copyright © UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2005
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