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UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs |
COTE D IVOIRE: Will the Pretoria accord be just words, or action?
ABIDJAN, 7 Apr 2005 (IRIN) - While the spirit of the Pretoria agreement has been broadly welcomed in Cote d'Ivoire and beyond, the nuts and bolts of the agreement fall far short of the "definitive" solution it was cracked up to be, analysts said on Thursday.
After three days of closed-door meetings in Pretoria, President Laurent Gbagbo and New Forces rebel leader Guillaume Soro on Wednesday issued the latest in a series of still-dead-on-paper formats for restoring peace in West Africa's former economic giant, Cote d'Ivoire.
Cote d'Ivoire split in two after a failed coup in September 2002. Although a peace deal was signed the following January, neither side has yet laid down a single weapon and 10,000 UN and French peacekeeping troops are still at working keeping the foes apart.
Analysts in consequence remain guarded. While the latest so-called Pretoria deal looks good on paper, so have earlier peace agreements struck first in Paris and later in Accra, Ghana.
"The question is whether there is the political will on both sides, the New Forces and the government, to implement the agreed measures," said Alex Vines, the head of the Africa programme at the Royal Institute of International Affairs in London.
Others fear the players may have a change of heart once away from the side of chief mediator, South African President Thabo Mbeki.
"We are going to have to watch Gbagbo now he's back home... previously when he's returned [from meetings] he has changed his mind," said Antoine Glaser head of the Paris-based African newsletter, Lettre du Continent.
Under the deal, disarmament, demobilisation and rehabilitation (DDR) of rebels and pro-government militia forces is due to begin with a special meeting on 14 April in the rebel stronghold of Bouake in the northern half of Cote d'Ivoire held by the insurgents.
But even the rebels in the New Forces movement are cautious. A top official Sindou Cisse told IRIN from Bouake that his men were not about to be lured into a false sense of security.
"There is a problem of confidence and we do not want to be blinded by the process. In November we were about to embark on DDR, then we got bombarded!" Cisse said.
In November the southern-based government air-force bombed rebel positions breaking the terms of a cease-fire. In another incident highlighting the mounting tension in Cote d'Ivoire, pro-government militias in March attacked rebel bases in the volatile west.
Both incidents sent warning lights to the international community of impending trouble, and were condemned by Mbeki. But condemnation alone is not enough and the New Forces as well as the government want to see some changes.
"The militias need to be dismantled and disarmed. We also need the national armed forces to be recast - these issues were stated in Pretoria, now we await their application," said Cisse.
As part of the Pretoria agreement, 600 rebel fighters are to be recruited and trained as police to work alongside UN peacekeepers.
But many of the pro-Gbagbo militia groups have different ideas.
"If the people who made these plans think they will work then they are in for a surprise as our war is mystical and we will come back stronger then before," said Denis Maho Glofiehi, 'General' of the Liberation Front for the Grand West (FLGO) based in Guiglo close to the Liberian border.
Glofiehi denies that the FLGO is even a militia group. As does Pieye Sia, second in command of the loyalist Union of Patriots for the Resistence of the Grand West (UPRGO) militia, in nearby Duekue.
"We are not a militia. We are not armed. We're youths that want to defend our country," Sia told IRIN.
According to one UN worker based in the west, the group may not be much of a threat but it is armed. "Of course they are a militia and they're armed. They have Kalashnikovs and hunting rifles," he said. "But they are more of a nuisance than a fully fledged fighting force."
Meanwhile many on the government side are fuming that foreigner Mbeki is to have the last word on a crucial and controversial piece of Ivorian legislation that sets out who can run for president - Article 35 of the constitution.
The legislation, which has become a key stumbling block to peace, prevents the registration of would-be candidates who cannot boast at least one Ivorian parent.<
"We are saddened by the fact that some mediator has been given the job of resolving Article 35. We have the solution to the problem: it needs to go to a referendum," said Toure Zeguen, president of the Abidjan-based Patriotic Grouping for Peace (GPP).
Article 35 was used in the 2000 elections to lock former prime minister Alassane Ouattara, Gbagbo's prime foe, from standing for president.
Gbagbo, the victor of the 2000 polls rigged by then incumbent military leader General Robert Guei, wants to maintain Article 35. Any change, Gbagbo says, should be put to a national referendum.
But with the country split in two, organising such a process would be difficult.
Because the two sides have disagreed repeatedly over this question, under the Pretoria accord Mbeki has won the unprecedented job of giving the thumbs up or down to the controversial article after consultating with UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and African Union Chairman Olusegun Obasanjo.
He has promised an answer within the week.
Diplomats say a deal on 35 has certainly been made behind closed doors in Pretoria to allow Ouattara to stand in elections to be held this year.
According to this scenario, Gbagbo would have been given a face-saving week to prepare his troops on the ground for the bad news that his rival is ready to pop back on the political scene.
"We Ivorians cannot accept that someone who rose up and killed our parents can then become a [presidential] candidate," said a young woman in the loyalist south who would only give her name as Jacqueline.
"If Ouattara is a candidate, we will block his path!" she said.
Analysts warn that the article 35 issue could further delay efforts to clinch peace and that time is running out if elections are to be held on schedule in October.
"Certainly the Gbagbo administration is not overly enthusiastic about the prospect of elections, as he knows that he may not do very well," said Vine.
But the Pretoria agreement will also test the commitment of the international community, said Glaser.
Annan has already made a request to the UN Security Council to increase the ONUCI mandate by 1,200 men.
"It is important to see what the US response to all this will be, as previously they have refused to support an increase in the number of UN troops in Cote d'Ivoire," Glaser said.
Under the Pretoria agreement, the UN will be responsible for organising elections scheduled for October. But with their capacity already stretched, a substantially increased mandate will be needed when it comes up for renewal on 4 May.
Residents told IRIN the atmosphere in Abidjan had been subdued these last days as residents wait and watch the latest developments unfold.
"I do not know if this agreement will be good or not. I think we will have to wait to see the application on the ground.
"In Cote d'Ivoire, the problem is not whether the agreement is good or the bad - it is the will for peace that is missing," said Etienne Souaga, a local businessman.
[ENDS]
This material comes to you via IRIN, a UN humanitarian information unit, but may not necessarily reflect the views of the United Nations or its agencies. If you re-print, copy, archive or re-post this item, please retain this credit and disclaimer. Quotations or extracts should include attribution to the original sources. All materials copyright © UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs 2005
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