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PRESIDENTIAL RACE STARTS IN KYRGYZSTAN

RIA Novosti

MOSCOW/BISHKEK. (RIA Novosti commentator Pyotr Goncharov) --

The presidential race in Kyrgyzstan has started. The election is currently set for June 26, but this date may change. Under the constitution, a pre-term presidential election must be held within three months of the incumbent's resignation. It is known that Askar Akayev, who is now in Moscow, has agreed to step down, but his resignation has not yet been formalized. It should be made official in the next few days, either in Bishkek or the Russian capital.

In Bishkek, the presidential ballot is expected to be "as exciting and uncompromising" as the recent parliamentary elections. One of the latest intriguing developments is that the former opposition allies are set to fight each other for the country's top position.

Kurmanbek Bakiyev, the republic's acting Prime Minister, was the first to announce he would run for president. As he is the leader of the united opposition, this move was expected. Previously, when elections were scheduled for the fall and were to be contested by an Akayev candidate, all the other opposition leaders were expected to back Bakiyev against Akayev's man. However, relations among the "tulip" revolution leaders are not now so smooth. Only last Wednesday, one of them, Adakhan Madumarov, said that he was going to run for election. Moreover, Madumarov, formerly considered a Bakiyev loyalist, made it clear that he would run as his opponent now. A former deputy and contender in the 2000 presidential election, Madumarov says that "due to political differences" the opposition will be putting more than one candidate forward. This revealing statement suggests a possible schism in the ranks of the former opposition and the current leaders of the country.

It is believed that a former minister for emergency situations, Temirbek Akmataliyev, and a former Deputy Minister of Transport and Communications, Nurbek Turdukulov, will contest the presidential election as supporters of the old authorities. Turdukulov used to be a successful businessman and owned a cellular company which, according to rumors, was co-founded by Askar Akayev's son, Aydar Akayev .

The feeling in the Kyrgyz capital is that even the combined opposition of Akmataliyev and Turdukulov is unlikely to present a serious challenge to Bakiyev's candidature. He has a strong political track record from his time as governor of the Chui region and as prime minister.

But both Bakiyev and the Akayev camp have unexpectedly found themselves faced with a serious contender, Felix Kulov, who on Wednesday announced that he was leaving his post overseeing the security agencies.

Kulov has not yet officially announced he will run for the presidency. But people who worked with him when he was vice-president and know his organizational skills and political ambitions do not doubt that his decision to step down will be followed by an announcement that he is joining the presidential race. When asked who they think is most likely to win the election, Bakiyev or Kulov, most people in the Kyrgyz capital favor Kulov's chances. This is in part because they believe that it was he who put an end to the looting in the capital, and also because he is renowned for his "uncompromising opposition to the Akayev regime".

It should be remembered that Kulov is the most bright figure in Kyrgyz history. He was the only leader of the former opposition to be jailed for his political stance (charged with economic crimes). The fate of the others was less dramatic. And Kulov is the man who within just twenty-four hours of his release from prison took control of the police and security services and a couple of days later, restored law and order in the capital. His popularity is guaranteed.

Moscow is adopting a neutral stance as regards the coming election. Russian leaders have not issued any statements on the matter. This would appear to be because none of the candidates is seen as being "anti-Russian" or as a potential threat to the traditionally close relations between Russia and Kyrgyzstan. There is however a possible turn of events that would concern Moscow. Alexei Makarkin, the deputy director of the Center for Political Technologies, believes the Kulov-Bakiyev confrontation will be played out along the traditional Kyrgyz battle lines of north and south.

In Bishkek, however, people believe that it is still too early to predict how the contest will develop. They fear, and with reason, that the presidential election, instead of being a purely political contest, may escalate into a power struggle between the local clans. And this would put paid to all "tulip" gains in the republic.