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AVOIDING A RUSSIA-VS-WEST RIFT OVER KYRGYZSTAN

RIA Novosti

PARIS (by columnist Angela Charlton for RIA Novosti) - Is Kyrgyzstan following the footsteps of Ukraine and Georgia, as yet another opposition movement takes to the streets to threaten the status quo?

All three ex-Soviet republics held questionable elections that sparked protests. But dig beneath the surface and the similarities disintegrate. Unlike in Ukraine and Georgia, Kyrgyzstan's demonstrations have already turned violent, scaring away for support for both sides; the opposition lacks a unifying leader; and drug barons and Islamic militants have mingled with the disgruntled activists.

With opposition groups occupying government buildings in Bishkek, international mediation may become necessary to avoid a civil war. Russia and the West don't have to be on opposing sides this time. Joint Russian-US involvement would be the wisest and safest solution for Kyrgyzstan, and for Central Asia as a whole.

Sober minds in Moscow and Washington recognize the dangers of taking sides in the Kyrgyz dispute. It remains to be seen whether they will prevail, or whether Russia and the West will plunge into another round of geopolitical wrangling that leaves beleaguered Kyrgyzstan the victim.

As soon as news of opposition protests over Kyrgyz parliamentary elections broke earlier this month, many western observers gleefully predicted the next post-Soviet revolution. Buoyed by democratic rumblings in the Middle East, American observers especially are eager to see the Ukrainian and Georgian scenarios repeated - and to see stubborn Russia embarrassed yet again in its own backyard.

Some even labeled Akayev an acolyte of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Yet Akayev had an iron grip on power well before Putin became president, and the Kremlin has been distancing itself from Akayev for years. Mikhail Margelov, chairman of the Federation Council's foreign relations' committee, called Akayev's democratic record "far from ideal" and suggested the Kyrgyz elections were less than perfect.

Unofficial reports say Akayev came to Moscow during the heat of the protests on Sunday, but was denied a meeting with Putin and sent home with a warning to avoid a crackdown. The next day, Akayev was in Kyrgyzstan toeing a softer line, promising a review of the most controversial election results and suggesting negotiations with the opposition were possible.

Moscow appears to have learned some lessons in Ukraine. Russian officials have hosted top Kyrgyz opposition figures, leaving both sides prepared in case regime change in Kyrgyzstan becomes likely. But the Kremlin is taking care not to antagonize Akayev, to avoid repeating what happened in Moldova earlier this year, when a once pro-Moscow president turned against his Russian mentors.

The West's relationship with Kyrgyzstan is more tangled than its relations with Ukraine and Georgia. Akayev was considered the most liberal of Central Asia's presidents in the 1990s, but his democratic reputation soured as he amassed more and more power for his allies. Then he was again in favor in 2001, when Washington needed his permission to install U.S. air bases in Kyrgyzstan for the war in Afghanistan.

Akayev and some Russian observers accuse western sources of funding and fomenting the unrest in Kyrgyzstan. But as the crisis has unfolded, U.S. officials have kept a low profile, unlike they did in Ukraine and Georgia. They appear more concerned with U.S. security interests - and their relationship with China, on Kyrgyzstan's eastern border - than democratic revolutions.

Russia and the United States have more in common when it comes to Kyrgyzstan than both sides seem willing to admit. Both have a military presence there, and both want stability in the region but have reservations about Akayev. Both are determined to retain influence in Central Asia: Moscow wants to keep Washington from gaining the upper hand, and Washington wants to make sure it doesn't become a Russian fiefdom. Facing off over Kyrgyzstan would put both sides' goals at risk.