Military

DATE=10/22/2004

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

TITLE=BRITAIN / IRAQ (L-ONLY)

NUMBER=2-319841

BYLINE=MICHAEL DRUDGE

DATELINE=LONDON

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

HEADLINE: Britain Says Major Anti-Insurgent Operation Coming in Iraq

INTRO: Britain's senior military officer says U.S. forces in Iraq are preparing a major counter-insurgency campaign, as Western military experts warn it could take years for the Iraqi military to be strong enough to guarantee stability there. VOA's Michael Drudge reports from London.

TEXT: The British military says its upcoming deployment of an 850-member armored battalion for patrol duties near Baghdad will free up U.S. forces to conduct what one officer calls "decisive action" against Iraqi militants.

The chief of defense staff, General Michael Walker, told British radio the U.S.-led offensive is necessary to improve conditions for elections in Iraq planned in January. General Walker expressed optimism that Iraqis will eventually take over their own security.

///WALKER ACT///

"We're slowly developing the Iraqis' own security capabilities, and the intention over a period of time is that responsibility for security should be handed very firmly over to the Iraqi security forces themselves with us increasingly in support to start with, and then further in the background thereafter."

///END ACT///

A report this week by a leading London-based military research organization said it could take five years before Iraqi troops are sufficiently trained to guarantee stability.

The report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies says the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq actually increased recruitment for the al-Qaida terrorist network. And the institute's director, John Chipman, says up to one thousand foreign fighters may have infiltrated Iraq.

///CHIPMAN ACT///

"The Iraq war reinforced the United States' status as al-Qaida's prime enemy, enhanced jihadist (Islamic militant) recruitment and intensified al-Qaida's motivation to encourage and assist terrorist operations."

///END ACT///

The New York Times newspaper says senior U.S. officials estimate there are now between eight-thousand and 12-thousand insurgents in Iraq, up from earlier estimates of two thousand to seven thousand militants.

According to the defense analyst, Mr. Chipman, the Islamic militant movement may step up operations in Europe because the United States has become harder to attack since September 11th, 2001.

///2ND CHIPMAN ACT///

"Europe, where Islamic radicalization is on the rise and whose southern exposure makes it vulnerable to terrorist infiltration from the Middle East and North Africa, may now figure more prominently in jihadist targeting."

///END ACT///

He says the United States and Europe have improved information-sharing and monitoring of suspected terrorists, but more needs to be done. (Signed)

NEB/MWD/AWP/MAR