Military

DATE=10/11/04

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT (L-ONLY)

TITLE= (CQ) SOMALIA/POLITICS

NUMBER=2-319584

BYLINE=CATHY MAJTENYI

DATELINE=NAIROBI

CONTENT=

///EDS: REISSUED TO SUBSTITUTE "MR. YUSUF" FOR "MR. AHMED" IN THE THIRD GRAPH///

VOICED AT:

HEADLINE: Worries Continue Over Somalia, Despite New President

INTRO: The election late Sunday of Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed as president of Somalia has not raised expectations among some observers the country will return to peace and unity after more than a decade of lawlessness. Cathy Majtenyi reports from Nairobi, where Somalia's parliament elected the new president.

TEXT: An analyst with the International Crisis Group, Matthew Bryden, says Abdullahi Yusuf Ahmed does not have a track record of peace.

/// BRYDEN ACT ///

"He is not what I would describe as a consensus figure, and he is not know as a conciliator. He has been a fighter for the last 36 years. I think it would be unexpected for him to make an about-face now."

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Ahmed was declared Somalia's new president late Sunday, after winning 189 votes to 79 over his nearest rival, former diplomat and minister Abdullahi Ahmed Adow. Of the 275 members of Somalia's parliament eligible to vote in Sunday's election, 268 did so.

Mr. Yusuf, a professional soldier and a member of the Darood clan, was a senior officer during the reign of former dictator Siad Barre. In April 1978, Mr. Yusuf tried to overthrow Mr. Barre but failed and fled to Ethiopia, where he set up the Somali Salvation Democratic Front faction.

He later returned to Somalia, and, in 1998, became president of the semi-autonomous Puntland region.

In late 2001, Jama Ali Jama was elected president of Puntland to succeed Mr. Yusuf. But Mr. Yusuf refused to recognize the election results and stayed in office, causing on-going heavy fighting in the area.

In his acceptance speech, Mr. Yusuf promised to do everything in his power to re-build war-ravaged Somalia. He said he would work hard to reconcile Somalis, bring back peace and security, and disarm militias.

Analyst Bryden cautions it is too early to tell how effective Mr. Yusuf will be in bridging the deep divisions in Somalia.

Mr. Bryden says a lot will depend on the president's choice of prime minister and cabinet, as well as whether he will continue his authoritarian style of leadership.

The new president is widely seen as an ally of Ethiopia and the United States, which Mr. Bryden says irks militant Islamists in Somalia's capital, Mogadishu. He says there are others who oppose the president elect along political and tribal lines.

/// BRYDEN 2ND ACT ///

"There will be division and there will be resistance. He will have a choice: he can either try and reassure the opposition and bring them in, or he can try and impose himself. And I think if he does the latter, then the peace process will unravel pretty quickly.

/// END ACT ///

The peace process that culminated in Sunday's election has been taking place in Kenya during the past two years, during which 23 factional leaders, civil society representatives, traditional elders, and others came together to write a new charter for the country and pick a new government.

/// REST OPT /// Somalia plunged into anarchy after the ouster of Barre in 1991. Since then, groups based on clan and sub-clan affiliations have controlled different parts of the country through the strength of their militias, with no central government to provide law, order, and resources to the people. (SIGNED)

NEB/CM/MAR/RAE