Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

4 August 2004

IRAQ

• According to the Financial Times, August 3, the handover between Admiral David Nash, head of the U.S.’s Iraq reconstruction effort, and the State Department’s former aid coordinator for Afghanistan William Taylor, expected by November, marks an accelerating shift in the U.S. aid program from military to civilian control. The daily observes that after sovereignty was transferred to the Iraqi interim government on June 28, overall policy for U.S. spending passed to the State Department, but program management and contracting stayed with the defense department. The article also reported some officials as suggesting that U.S. Aid, an independent agency guided by the secretary of state, is looking for more direct control, although it remains unclear how responsibilities might change under the rethink. The newspaper commented that there was considerable debate over what changes should be initiated. The dispute was reportedly accompanied by recent reports that the U.S.-led Coalition Provisional Authority mishandled reconstruction funds during its 13-month existence. The paper argues that rethinking reconstruction may prove to be more important than any offensive strategy. But, argues the paper, despite U.S. efforts to speed the disbursement of 18.4 billion dollars in reconstruction money, Iraqis widely complain that poor results on the ground. In conclusion, the article stressed that the U.S. begun implementing quicker, smaller scale, projects in June through its Accelerated Iraq Reconstruction Program. Meantime, General Sir Michael Rose, who led the UN forces in Bosnia, in a contribution to the International Herald Tribune writes that instead of using overwhelming military force as the principal weapon in this war, a longer term, more indirect strategy needs to be adopted. This strategy, he goes on saying, should employ all instruments of government, economic, political, social and military. Fortunately, he comments, the U.S. forces, in terms of resources, have the physical ability to undertake such a change of strategy.
  
  
• The Financial Times, August 3, reported that Denmark on Tuesday night recalled its four top military leaders in Iraq following allegations that some members of the 500-strong Danish contingent had breached Geneva convention rules on the treatment of prisoners of war. “We have information of a nature that could raise questions about the judgment of the leadership in Iraq,” Danish Defense Minister Soren Gade was quoted as saying. The daily said one female officer, member of the Danish forces, was recalled to Copenhagen pending an investigation into charges that she had denied water to detainees and forced them to spend extended periods in painful positions during interrogation. The article also said that according to Danish media reports, 40 to 50 personnel will be interviewed by military authorities in Copenhagen to assess the proportions of the problem.

AFGHANISTAN

• Burnett R. Rubin, director of studies at New York University’s Center on International Cooperation, in an article published by the International Herald Tribune argues that Afghanistan may not be prepared to face the change in the political landscape in the country, caused by President Karzai’s decision not to name Defense Minister Muhammad Qasim Fahim as one of the two vice-presidential candidates, and the presidential elections may spark violence. President Karzai, Mr. Rubin says, made the best possible choice under the present circumstances, since the defense minister, who has led the Northern Alliance in resisting demobilization, is seen by most Afghans as the country’s chief warlord. Allying with him, he speculates, president Karzai would discredit himself and the reform process. With difficulty, at the last minute Karzai convinced Ahmed Massoud, Afghanistan’s ambassador to Russia and brother of the slain commander, to join his ticket, the author says. But, he also adds, the rebuff of Fahim led to a swift, long-anticipated response: the present minister of education, Yunus Qanooni, who is supported by Fahim and Foreign Minister Abdullah, declared his candidacy. A poll by the International Republican Institute shows Karzai in the lead in all ethnic groups and regions, writes Mr. Rubin, but such polls have no track record in Afghanistan by which to judge their accuracy and more importantly, Afghanistan is not yet a country where people can vote freely. Immediately after October 9, when the ballots are counted, concludes the author, there may be violent protests in a country where all major candidates control the armed forces.