Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

15 July 2004

BALKANS

• In a joint letter published in the International Herald Tribune on the occasion of a visit to Sarajevo, NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer and EU foreign and security policy chief Solana write that “our joint visit (today) is a sign that (the) transformation of the international presence—the transition from SFOR to EUFOR—is a common project of the EU and NATO. It is also a sign that we want the authorities of Bosnia to take full part in this transformation.” Ahead of the EU takeover of SFOR at the end of the year, Mr. Solana and Mr. de Hoop Scheffer pledge that NATO’s long-term political commitment will remain unchanged. The establishment of a NATO headquarters will be proof of this. They say the main task of the headquarters will be to assist the local authorities in defense reforms and stress that the EU mission will be robust and capable. It will continue at the same force levels as SFOR and exercise full Dayton authority. Noting that over 80 percent of the force’s soldiers are already from EU member states, they add: “While the force, when the security situation so permits, will be reconstructed and adapted to make it even more responsive to its core tasks, the new mission will initially look very much as the Stabilization Force looks today.” Stressing that the EU military operation has been prepared in close consultation with NATO, they add: “The headquarters will be located at Camp Butmir in Sarajevo, as was the Stabilization Force. On some important issues, like the arrest of war criminals, the EU and NATO will work closely together.” They conclude: Together with the Union’s already considerable political engagement, all its assistance projects and its ongoing police advisory mission, the new military operation will be part of a comprehensive support package. This package, which will be coordinated by Lord Ashdown in his role as EU special representative, is designed to assist the country as it moves from Dayton implementation to European integration. There is a clear framework for the journey toward the EU: the stabilization and association process. The EU will make use of all its policy instruments in order to help Bosnia to make progress within that process. The Union’s objective is not only to stabilize the country, but also to help it make the required social, economic and political transformation.”

AFGHANISTAN

• Reuters quotes a UN spokesman saying angry Afghans ransacked a UN-run election office in the remote Afghan town of Chaghcharan Wednesday after a skirmish between government troops and militia forces. The dispatch notes that the violence highlights concerns about security for the elections in October and in April and comes as President Karzai issued a decree saying anyone who opposes a drive to disarm militia fighters would be considered disloyal and rebellious.

The International Herald Tribune considers that the recent decision to postpone parliamentary election in Afghanistan from September until next April is an overdue recognition of reality. Conditions for conducting genuine elections were lacking. There was insufficient security for citizens registering to vote as well as for officials and volunteers trying to get them registered, the newspaper says, adding: What needs to be done is no mystery: NATO, whose 6,500 troops are almost all in Kabul, needs to send several thousand more, enough to go from one Afghan province to the next, disarming the warlords’ militias. If each warlord sees that his rivals will also be disarmed and that the disarming will continue across the country, he and others may all see that it is better to seek power via political means than to lose all in a confrontation with NATO forces. Then it will become possible to hold meaningful elections.

Afghanistan’s coming elections are in jeopardy, and not jut because of a revived Taliban, writes the New York Times, claiming that President Karzai has made plain to the newspaper that the warlord armies that Washington used to oust the Taliban in 2001 now pose an even greater danger. The warlords got an unexpected chance to rebuild their power when the Bush administration chose to rely mainly on their private armies to eject the Taliban from Kabul in late 2001, the newspaper notes, warning that moving effectively against them will be difficult. “Together they have far more troops than Karzai’s nascent national army, and he has been forced to cut dangerous short-term deals with them. The first step should be to mobilize international pressure against one or two of the most notorious warlords, in the hope that others will get the message and fall in line. To curb the warlords further, NATO should expand its peacekeeping role. New jobs also need to be found for those now making their living as fighters for hire. There is no need to extend the area of American combat operation. Even in the southeast, where the United States has concentrated its military efforts, the results have been mixed at best. The Taliban have never been thoroughly routed, and local resentment over the long-term presence of foreign forces and claims of errant bombs that kill civilians seems to be creating new recruits. Ultimate victory in Afghanistan requires an effective national government, freed from both the Taliban and the warlords,” stresses the newspaper.