Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

30 April 2004

ISAF

• AFP quotes an ISAF official, who asked not to be named, saying the combined pressure of the U.S.-led coalition and Pakistani operations on its side of the border to hunt militants had been effective in containing Taliban attacks. “Clearly embarrassed, the Taliban don’t have the strength at the moment to increase their operations for the Spring,” he reportedly said. The dispatch notes that according to security officials and analysts in Kabul, Taliban do not have the strength to take on the Americans in the countryside and have switched to planning an “urban insurgency” in the capital. It quotes an ISAF spokesman saying at a news conference in Kabul Wednesday: “Insurgency and terrorist forces have ceased to be able to function in a coherent manner…. We have an insurgency that is falling apart. And in its desperation it will move to places where it can act and perhaps score…. In a way it couldn’t in the countryside.” According to the dispatch, the spokesmit was expected that Taliban insurgents as well as allies linked to Al Qaeda and wanted warlord and former Afghan premier Hekmatyar would instead be mobilizing to strike in Kabul ahead of the presidential polls.an said

IRAQ

• The Washington Times reports Britain warned Thursday that it will need a firm legal framework based on a UN resolution or a deal with the new Iraqi government in order to keep its troops operating in the country after a June 30 transfer of authority. At the same time, adds the article, army chiefs reportedly have been urging Prime Minister Blair to put off announcing that Britain will replace the withdrawing Spanish forces with about 1,700 fresh British troops in and around the Shiite flash point of Najaf. According to the newspaper, British military lawyers and generals privately have been advising the government to postpone any increase in troop strength until a new Iraqi government takes power and the legal basis for their presence is clarified. The article claims that behind the argument lies increasing military criticism of the U.S. tactics in putting down insurgencies and the lack of an obvious plan to restore order and establish economic and political progress. British generals reportedly fear that tough American action in places such as Najaf will serve mainly to infuriate the population and that British troops will be “left to pick up the pieces.”