Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

20 April 2004

IRAQ

• The Christian Science Monitor considers that while the order to pull 1,300 Spanish troops out of Iraq is not militarily significant, it may stop U.S. efforts to involve NATO. According to the newspaper, the decision will kindle new flames of doubt among U.S. allies, threatening the coalition as governments rethink their commitment in the light of the fairing violence in Iraq and the country’s uncertain future. “U.S. hopes of persuading NATO to play a role in southern Iraq, for example, appear dimmed, the newspaper speculates, adding: “Washington’s recent behind-the-scene efforts in Brussels to share the burden by persuading NATO to take command of the central sector of Iraq will probably suffer from (Spanish leader) Zapatero’s move.” The newspaper also quotes Gary Samore, a Clinton White House advisor now at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, saying that “Spain’s decision will make it much more difficult to get any agreement.”

An editorial in French daily Le Figaro suggests a Paris-sponsored Afghan-style loya jirga for Iraq.
Under the title, “How to help America?,” the newspaper writes: “The Sunni triangle in open rebellion, the collapse of the new Iraqi security forces, the development of an armed insurrection within part of the Shiite community, the unilateral withdrawal of Spanish troops: the situation is going so badly in Iraq for America that France now has the duty to do all it can to help its oldest ally. Sending French troops to Iraq would serve no purpose…. The more foreign troops are sent to Iraq, the more new ‘resistance fighters’ will be created. We have entered the classical vicious cycle that numerous colonial expeditions have experienced in the past. Moving the country under UN administration is not a solution either…. But the Iraqi issue is not insolvable…. The problem currently facing U.S. administrator Paul Bremer is the lack of credible interlocutors…. There is one route that has not yet been explored: that of an Afghan-style loya jirga, a national conference where all the actors genuinely representative of Iraqi society would be invited to decide on the future of their country, to manage the transfer of sovereignty and the eventual departure of the occupation forces.” Suggesting that France could try to organize such a conference in Paris, the newspaper stresses, however, that Paris must still convince Washington that such a conference would be a friendly gesture of an old and loyal ally.

AFGHANISTAN

• According to AP, Afghan President Karzai said Tuesday he had ordered a reduction in the size of his Cabinet and a clarification of the responsibilities of each ministry, a shakeup that could face deep resentments from the nation’s fractious ethnic and regional groups. Karzai reportedly made the announcement at the opening of a three-day gathering of representatives of international donor nations in Kabul. He told the gathering that Vice President Arsala and two ministers would come back with recommendations in two weeks on how to pare the Cabinet down. He also announced plans to overhaul the system of selecting sub-Cabinet level posts in an effort to make them more transparent. The dispatch notes that several sensitive ministries that currently are run by a patchwork of politically appointed ministers and sub-ministers—most notably the Defense Ministry—could be affected by the change.
  
  
• Against the background of a growing flow of drugs in Russia from Afghanistan, Moscow’s Moskovskiy Kommsomolets, April 16, asked Russian experts whether an anti-drug operation in Afghanistan was feasible. Aleksey Arbatov, member of the Russian Academy of Sciences and of the Moscow-based Carnegie Center Scientific Council, was quoted saying: “We cannot carry out a military operation to destroy opium poppy plantations or drug dealers’ bases without informing the Afghan authorities, for this would be tantamount to starting a war. However, as regards small-scale operations at the border itself and in Afghan border areas, these kinds of operations were conducted in the 1990s and I think should be resumed.” Vitaliy Shlykov, member of the External Defense Policy Council, reportedly said: “The fight against narcotics on the very territory where they are produced is not such an absurd idea. The Americans have a special program to combat drugs in Colombia…. This kind of operation is absolutely conceivable in Afghanistan, but it cannot be conducted unilaterally. It can only be carried out on an international basis and coordinated with NATO, which is currently in charge of Afghanistan…. We have to obtain a ‘go ahead’ from NATO and the Afghan government.” Stressing that “Russia has the right to defend itself against narco-aggression at any costs,” the newspaper concluded: “Any action on Afghanistan’s territory involving the use of Russian troops can only have the form of a special operation most likely conducted jointly with the United States and its allies in Central Asia.”