Military

DATE=3/29/2004

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

TITLE=CQ FRANCE/ELECTIONS (L-ONLY)

NUMBER=2-314559

BYLINE=LISA BRYANT

DATELINE=PARIS

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

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INTRO: France's ruling party suffered a major setback in regional and local elections Sunday, and it is seen by some as a personal defeat for French President Jacques Chirac. Analysts expect a government reorganization. But from Paris, Lisa Bryant reports the sizable voter discontent may push the government to consider bigger changes.

TEXT: Disgruntled by a sluggish economy, high unemployment, and a series of unpopular government reforms, French voters delivered a clear message to President Chirac and his conservative government, by voting massively for the leftist opposition.

Results of the second round of regional and local elections gave the Socialists and smaller leftist parties 50-percent of the vote, compared to only 37-percent for Mr. Chirac's Union for a Popular Movement party. Overall, the results mean the left will be in charge of roughly 21 of France's 23 regions.

Many conservative ministers were defeated in their bids for local posts in the elections. Former president Valery Giscard d'Estaing lost his seat in the Auvergne region, after 18 years in office.

The far-right National Front also scored less well than expected, capturing only 12-point-five-percent

of the vote. The party is expected to lose about half of its current regional posts.

Etienne Schweisguth, an analyst at the Paris-based Center for the Study of French Political Life, echoes other pundits who believe Sunday's vote is not necessarily an endorsement of the left, but rather a rejection of the country's ruling conservatives.

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Until the elections, Mr. Schweisguth says, the Socialist Party did not appear to be particularly appealing for many French voters, and the left's political platforms were unclear.

Instead, he says, the conservatives' defeat reflects a pattern seen elsewhere in Europe, in which voters are showing their anger against unpopular reforms. In France, for example, new pension reforms drew tens-of-thousands of protesters to the streets last year.

What the conservatives and Mr. Chirac will do next is unclear. Some observers expect several ministers to be dismissed as part of a cabinet reorganization. Some suggest that might include Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin.

But Mr. Schweisguth believes Mr. Chirac and his conservatives will have to consider more profound changes.

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At the same time, Mr. Schweisguth says, fiscal constraints give the government few choices, apart from launching pension and other unpopular reforms. That includes a promised overhaul of France's health care system.

Altogether, Mr. Schweisguth says, President Chirac faces a very difficult situation - with no easy solution. (SIGNED)

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