Military

DATE=3/23/2004

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=ISRAEL / PALESTINIANS / HAMAS

NUMBER=5-55072

BYLINE=SONJA PACE

DATELINE=JERUSALEM

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: One day after the assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin in an Israeli missile strike, Israel is vowing to target all Palestinian militant leaders and Palestinians are vowing revenge. In this report from Jerusalem, V-O-A's Sonja Pace examines what effect the killing of Sheikh Yassin could have on the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians.

TEXT: For Israeli officials the case is clear: the assassination of Sheikh Yassin was legitimate self-defense against a man they deemed responsible for numerous terrorist attacks against Israeli citizens.

Israeli Army Chief of Staff Moshe Ya'alon.

/// YA'ALON ACT ///

The strike against Yassin is a significant blow to the Hamas terror organization.

/// END ACT ///

General Ya'alon said Israel would continue to target militants when opportunities arise and he said some, such as Yasser Arafat or Hezbollah chief Hassan Nassrallah, seem to understand they could be next in line. Israeli Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz confirmed reports that the rest of the Hamas leadership is on the hit list.

Palestinian leaders have strongly condemned Monday's assassination. Palestinian shops and schools closed down in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank for a period of protest and mourning. Even those Palestinians who do not support Hamas view the killing of Sheikh Yassin as part of escalating Israeli violence against the Palestinians. Lawmaker Hanan Ashrawi.

/// ASHRAWI ACT ///

It's very clear that Sharon's failed policies of violence against the Palestinians have not worked and now he's escalating even more in an insane policy of violence and provocation that will launch a new cycle of revenge and violence.

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According to an opinion poll in the Israeli daily, Yediot Ahronot, much of the Israeli public agrees that more violence is likely. Eighty-one percent of those questioned said the assassination will lead to more attacks by militants. But, at the same time, 60 percent said they thought that killing Sheikh Yassin was the right thing to do.

An Israeli security analyst, retired Brigadier General Shlomo Brom of Tel Aviv's Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, says Israel targeted Sheikh Yassin because Hamas had recently changed its tactics and resumed suicide attacks inside Israel. He says the assassination is directly linked to Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plan for a withdrawal from the Gaza Strip.

/// BROM ACT ///

Because Sharon declared his intention to get out of the Gaza Strip, Hamas' conclusion was that this is a good opportunity to resume their operations and create the perception that Israel is leaving the Gaza Strip because of the pressure of the terror operations -- and Israel cannot afford this perception.

/// END ACT ///

Israeli officials have long compared their fight against militant organizations such as Hamas, Islamic Jihad and the Lebanese-based Hezbollah to the global war against terrorism and they say there is little difference between these groups and al-Qaida.

General Brom says he knows of no links between Hamas and al-Qaida. In fact, he says Hamas has taken pains to distance itself from al-Qaida -- but he says that could change.

/// 2ND BROM ACT ///

If they (Eds: Hamas) will find it difficult to react to the Israeli pressure by operations in the occupied territories or in Israel, maybe they will look for a softer belly and that softer belly may be abroad. But they don't have any infrastructure abroad and the only way that will be open to them will be to try to cooperate with other Islamic groups.

/// END ACT ///

General Brom says Israeli military operations and targeted assassinations may damage Hamas, but will not wipe the group out because it has grassroots support among the Palestinian public. But he says it could lead Hamas to forge links with groups such as Hezbollah or al-Qaida.

For now, Israelis are bracing for more violence. The West Bank and Gaza Strip have been closed off and security forces have been put on high alert for at least the coming month. (Signed)

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