Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

16 March 2004

GENERAL JONES

• Tallinn Radio 1, March 15, reported that Gen. Jones emphasized at meetings with Prime Minister Parts and Defense Minister Hanson Monday that the same security guarantees will apply to all NATO members. “Gen. Jones told Parts that the concept of new and old members did not exist; there are only NATO members,” the broadcast said. It added that the prime minister emphasized that keeping defense spending at 2 percent of GDP had been written into the budget strategy and would continue to be a government priority. The program further reported that Hanson briefed Gen. Jones on the process of drafting a development plan for the Estonian armed forces and indicated that, similarly to other NATO member states, the emphasis was on the creation of mobile and strong armed forces. “Gen. Jones stressed that NATO appreciated Estonia’s participation in peacekeeping operations and understood the cost involved,” the program continued.

TERRORISM

• Spanish police are reported to have identified six Moroccans who they believe carried out last Thursday’s Madrid bomb attacks, according to BBC News. The program quoted the daily El Pais saying five of the suspects were still at large but one was in custody. Quoting security sources, the daily reportedly said the man, named as Jamal Zougam, was said to have been recognized by people who survived the blasts. Zougam was reported to have connections with the alleged leader of an Al Qaeda cell in Madrid, who is awaiting trial in Spain on charges of taking part in the Sept. 11 plot. The program noted, however, that there has been no official comment from the Spanish authorities on the latest developments.

PM-elect Zapatero’s pledge to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq is seen as a blow to the U.S.-led coalition goals. Several media suggest that a Spanish pullout may undermine plans for a NATO involvement.
“Zapatero’s words were greeted with consternation at NATO in Brussels. Alliance diplomats said NATO’s plans to play a greater role in Iraq had been thrown into jeopardy,” says the Financial Times. The newspaper quotes unnamed diplomats saying NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer would ask the new Spanish government to reconsider its decision. “This is going to cause the U.S. real problems for finding troops in Iraq,” one Alliance diplomat reportedly said. “Spain had been due to replace Poland in the command of southern Iraq on July 1. The U.S. had hoped to test the grounds for a more robust NATO presence in Iraq at the NATO summit in Istanbul. One idea under consideration was that NATO might take over the command of the multinational force, depending on what kind of mandate the Alliance received from the UN and how it would work with U.S. forces,” stresses the article.
The Wall Street Journal observes in a similar vein that prior to last week’s bombings in Madrid, U.S. officials had been hopeful that NATO might make a commitment this summer at the Alliance’s summit in Istanbul to play a greater role in the Iraq occupation. Without Spain, the Bush administration will find it hard to secure NATO’s support, the newspaper adds, quoting Julianne Smith, an expert on NATO with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a non-partisan Washington think tank, saying: “Spain would have gone in as the chief NATO advocate for such a role. Now the whole dynamic will change. I think we’ll see real hesitation from both sides to push too much on NATO involvement.”

In the Washington Post, Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, writes that the Madrid bombings and their impact on the Spanish elections have brought the United States “to the edge of the abyss.”
Kagan writes: “There’s no denying that Al Qaeda has struck a strategic and not merely a tactical blow. To murder and terrorize people is one thing, but to unseat a pro-U.S. government in a nation that was a linchpin of America’s alliance with the so-called New Europe—that is Al Qaeda’s most significant geopolitical success since Sept. 11.” He stresses that if other European publics decide that Spaniards are right and conclude that the safer course in world affairs is to dissociate themselves from the United States, then the transatlantic partnership is no more. “The Bush administration needs to recognize it has a crisis on its hands and start making up for lost time in mending transatlantic ties, and not just with chosen favorites…. The American task now is to address both governments and publics in Old and New Europe, to move past disagreements over the Iraq war, and to seek transatlantic solidarity against al Qaeda,” Kagan warns and concludes: “If the United States cannot fight Al Qaeda without Europe’s help, it is equally true that Europe cannot fight Al Qaeda without the United States. If Europe’s leaders understand this, then they and Bush should recognize the urgency of making common cause now, before the already damaged edifice of the transatlantic community collapses.”

IRAQ

• According to BBC News, an opinion poll carried out in Iraq suggests that Iraqis are happier than they were before the U.S.-led invasion, optimistic about the future, and opposed to violence. The poll, of more than 2,500 adults, was commissioned by the BBC in association with other international broadcasters. It suggests that the reporting of the daily attacks on the occupying forces could be obscuring another picture. Seventy percent reportedly said that things were going well or quite well in their lives, while only 29 percent felt things were bad. And 56 percent said things were better now than they were before the war. Almost half (49 percent) believed the invasion of Iraq was right, although 41 percent felt that the invasion “humiliated Iraq.” More than three quarters (79 percent) want Iraq to remain united, and only 20 percent want it to become an Islamic state. The lack of security is seen as the single biggest problem people are facing. Regaining security is rated by far as the highest priority at 85 percent, followed by holding elections for a national government (30 percent), ensuring the majority of Iraqis can make a decent living (30 percent) and reviving the economy (28 percent). The program quoted Dan Plesch, a security expert at Brikbeck College in London, saying the poll was good news for the leaders of countries who began the invasion a year ago this week.