Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

12 February 2004

ISAF

• Reuters reports ISAF’s former commander, Lt. Gen. Gliemeroth, said in Brussels Wednesday several potential suicide bombers had infiltrated Kabul, but dismissed reports that there were as many as 60. “I learned about 60 potential suicide bombers … a boastful announced by self-appointed spokespersons from the Taliban-Al Qaeda side…. This is not substantiated but it does not ease our work…. We learnt that some potential bombers had infiltrated, to my estimate less than 10,” Gen. Gliemeroth reportedly told a news conference at NATO headquarters. According to the dispatch, he said he was not surprised by U.S. estimates that the number of hardcore insurgents had slipped below 1,000. “It’s sometimes not the number of potential spoilers … but more a question of the species,” he added and stressed: “We are dealing with smaller groups which are really poised to have a devastating impact on soft targets.”
  
  
• The EU’s External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten said Thursday reconstruction efforts could fail in Afghanistan if international donors did not increase the number of troops there to boost security, reports AP. According to the dispatch, Patten, who will be traveling to Kabul next week to assess reconstruction efforts on behalf of the EU, urged NATO to send more troops. “I strongly hope NATO will be able to provide more troops,” he reportedly said.

IRAQ

• According to AFP, Secretary of State Powell told a congressional hearing Wednesday NATO members are showing increasing acceptance of an Alliance commitment in Iraq. “There has been increasing acceptance that NATO does have a role to play,” he reportedly said, adding: “Most NATO countries are there now …, so it is not as if there is a huge reservoir of troops that suddenly becomes available when it shifts to a NATO mission.” A logical step, he continued, would be for NATO to take command of zones in Iraq where NATO members like Britain, Spain and Poland are already present in force. Powell is quoted saying: “I think the easiest way to start this would be for NATO to assume responsibility for the zone … where the Poles and the Spaniards and the UK and others are working, and that would plug right into our troops. It should all take place at the time that sovereignty is transferred, and then you would have NATO working with a sovereign government. We are encouraging our NATO allies to look at this.” According to the dispatch, Powell said he hoped NATO would make a decision on a commitment in Iraq at its Istanbul summit in June.

“GREATER MIDDLE EAST INITIATIVE”

• Amid growing media interest in a “Greater Middle East Initiative,” the Christian Science Monitor observes that President Bush’s strategy to create more freedom in the Middle East is gaining traction. “A NATO summit is due in June, and the U.S. has started to press its European partners to let that successful military Alliance of the Cold War spread its umbrella south and create a web of trust and common ideals from Morocco to Bahrain,” the newspaper notes, adding: “The most likely shared ideal: ending terrorism conducted in the name of Islam…. No one’s talking yet of full partnership for an Arab nation within NATO—only low-level activities, such as police training and joint military exercises…. And NATO is really just the advance guard for the Bush administration’s idea of having Middle East nations sign on to a regional organization loosely modeled on the 1975 Helsinki Accords. That Soviet-West grouping helped the West support democratic forces under communism. Under this ‘Greater Middle East Initiative,’ the West would provide incentives in trade, aid, and military linkages for Arab nations already moving toward democracy, market reforms, and human rights.”

BALKANS

• The Financial Times reports that in an interview, Harri Holkeri, head of the UN administration in Kosovo, urged the international community not to forget the province, despite competing demands in Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East. “My message is that we must keep Kosovo on the political map. The problems of Kosovo still remain. We have to cooperate with other headaches in the world. Do not forget, the pain is still here,” the newspaper quotes Holkeri saying. According to the newspaper, he was speaking in the course of a visit to Washington, New York and London, where he was discussing the latest plan for political and economic progress in Kosovo, launched in December. The newspaper recalls that under the plan, the UN Security Council is to review Kosovo’s status in the middle of next year. Independence, demanded by ethnic Albanians, and the continuing sovereignty of Serbia and Montenegro, demanded by Belgrade, will be the options on the table, as Holkeri has ruled out participation, the article adds.

In Rotterdam’s NRC Handelsblad, Feb. 10, retired Dutch Army Maj. Gen. Schaberg voiced concern over a possible EU takeover of SFOR.
Insisting that problems in the former Yugoslavia have not been resolved—“ They may have been temporarily frozen, but they still constitute an ominous threat”—Gen. Schaberg stressed the need to keep a “single and determined” command structure for all troops deployed in the region. “This should be led by NATO, which is able to deploy more troops if warranted by the local situation. NATO is in a position to assess the political and military aspects of all threats connected with the maintenance of law and order,” he argued. Gen. Schaberg continued: “The EU has been trying for some time to take over NATO’s mission in Bosnia. The EU’s ambition to become a military power underpins this development. However, the EU is no military power yet; it is reluctant to invest in its defense system and it lacks a single foreign policy.… An EU takeover of SFOR would be a negative development because it would give rise to two political and military authorities, NATO and the EU, who will share control over the region…. This situation threatens to give rise to frictions in case something unexpected happens, and it serves no purpose whatsoever…. (Having a single command structure) is a crucial issue for the Netherlands, which experienced the consequences of a nontransparent command structure in Srebrenica.”

Media center on ICTY Chief Prosecutor Carla del Ponte’s claim in Brussels Wednesday that indicted war criminal Karadzic is in Belgrade.
Ms. Del Ponte has thrown down the gauntlet to Serbia by adding Karadzic to the long list of fugitives allegedly hiding in the republic, writes AFP. The dispatch notes that her comments came ahead of a U.S. congressional review in March of Serbia’s cooperation with the ICTY, which will decide whether some $100 million in U.S. aid can be released to Belgrade.
In a similar vein, the New York Times observes that del Ponte’s assertion comes as Congress is scheduled to consider annual U.S. aid worth about $100 million to Serbia, which is conditional on the government’s cooperation with the Tribunal. The article quotes a NATO spokesman saying that at a meeting Wednesday, Del Ponte repeated her remarks to NATO Secretary General de Hoop Scheffer. According to the newspaper, the spokesman said increased activity by the Alliance in Bosnia could have prompted Karadzic to seek refuge elsewhere. With NATO “intensifying its efforts to track down people indicted for war crimes, Bosnia is becoming an inhospitable environment,” he reportedly said.