Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

29 January 2004

ISAF

• AP reports peacekeepers and local authorities tightened security in Kabul Thursday as investigations continued into who was behind the suicide attacks that killed two ISAF soldiers in the last two days. The dispatch observes that the twin attacks marked an escalation in the Taliban-led rebellion that is focused on the south and east, and increased its parallels with the insurgency raging in Iraq. It stresses, however, that peacekeepers were out in force Thursday after their commanders pledged not to allow the deaths of one Canadian and one British soldier deter them from high-profile street patrols.

Media focus on the suicide attacks against ISAF troops Tuesday and Wednesday Against the background of the attacks, The Times echoes Gen. Jones’ remark, in a testimony to a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing, that NATO faces a defining moment in Afghanistan. The newspaper suggests, however, that the attacks on ISAF troops may increase concern at a time when Alliance member countries are being urged to provide troops to backup their political pledge of extending the force’s mandate beyond Kabul. Several media note that the Afghan insurgency is changing tactics and express concern over the possibility of an Iraq-style bombing campaign.
“The death of a British soldier in Kabul Wednesday has sparked a NATO hunt for 60 suicide bombers who are believed to have infiltrated in the Afghan capital,” claims The Times, adding: “Intelligence reports last month said that up to 60 suicide bombers had gathered in Kabul, several of them women, at least one of whom had come from Indonesia. Britain has about 300 soldiers in Kabul, part of ISAF. They are responsible for counter-terrorism operations.” The newspaper continues: “The threat of suicide attacks on members of ISAF has reinforced the belief among NATO chiefs and the diplomatic community in Kabul that stability in Afghanistan, and particularly in Kabul, is seriously at risk. There have been frequent warnings in recent weeks that while the United States and its allies have been focusing on Iraq, the Taliban and their foreign supporters have been gaining influence in Afghanistan. This week, Gen. Jones … told a Senate committee that NATO faced a defining moment in Afghanistan. (He) said that southern and eastern Afghanistan remained dangerous areas because of Taliban activity. Continued attacks on American and Afghan forces and international aid workers in these areas were ‘generating fears.’” The article notes that NATO has agreed in principle to expand its ISAF force from Kabul to other regions, but there is, as yet, no guarantee that Alliance members will provide enough troops and equipment to back up their political decision. It speculates that the infiltration of suicide bombers inside Kabul will only add to that growing sense of fear. “Diplomats were asking Wednesday how, if Taliban bombers were able to operate in the capital, where there were more than 5,000 NATO troops on high alert, the Alliance would cope with similar threats in other areas of the country,” the article says.
Peshawar Afghan Islamic Press, Jan. 28, reported a Taliban spokesman said in a phone call Thursday that the Taliban were behind the suicide attacks on British and Canadian troops and that they would carry out such attacks in Afghan provinces also. Asked why the Taliban were now carrying out suicide attacks, the spokesman reportedly said: “We don’t want to harm Afghans and for this reason, we only target foreign forces but attacks carried out from a distance caused casualties to Afghans so we decided to go closer to foreign forces and carry out suicide attacks on them.”
The suicide car bomb attacks which killed ISAF soldiers in Kabul raised fears of a Iraq-style bombing campaign in the relatively peaceful city, writes The Guardian. The newspaper quotes an expert at the International Crisis Group, a think-tank, in Kabul, saying: “It is a major change of tactic, there’s no history of suicide bombing in Afghanistan. It’s worrying and it’s going to make things very difficult.”
The New York Times asserts that Kabul was full of rumors Wednesday that more attacks were being planned ahead of a religious holiday beginning this weekend. According to the newspaper, an Afghan intelligence official said there was information that five potential suicide bombers had arrived recently.

BALKANS

• According to AFP, a spokeswoman for ITCY Chief Prosecutor Carla del Ponte said the Tribunal was confident that Radovan Karadzic would be arrested this year. “We believe that SFOR is working on his arrest and we believe he will be arrested this year,” she reportedly said. The dispatch recalls that in an interview with the daily Dnevni Avaz, ICTY deputy prosecutor Graham Blewitt said he did not believe the international community had the political will to arrest Karadzic. It adds, however, that the spokeswoman said the statement reflected the “personal opinion of Graham Blewitt” and not the view of the ICTY’s prosecutor office. BBC News commented meanwhile that SFOR’s arrest Wednesday of a man suspected of being Karadzic’s chief bodyguard suggests a new determination. “One reason may be the fact that NATO peacekeeping operations are due to finish at the end of this year, and there may be a desire to settle unfinished business before they leave,” said the broadcast.

ESDP

• AFP reports that in a statement Wednesday, the EU announced that Nick Whitney, currently responsible for international security policy with Britain’s Ministry of Defense, has been appointed to set up a new defense agency aimed at streamlining and sharpening the EU’s military capability. Reuters says the agency will be established this year, probably by June, to help build Europe’s military capabilities for crisis management operations in hotspots far beyond its border. France had fought hard of its own candidate to have the post. But diplomats said the race for what is seen as a prestigious position was won by a Briton partly because a French officer will take over as head of the EU’s military staff from February, adds the dispatch.