Military

DATE=12/13/2003

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

TITLE=CYPRUS ELECTION (L O)

NUMBER=2-310825

BYLINE=AMBERIN ZAMAN

DATELINE=NICOSIA

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: Tens of thousands of Turkish Cypriots are voting in an election that could decide if the Mediterranean island will be re-unified. As Amberin Zaman reports from the Turkish-controlled sector of island's divided capital, Nicosia, the race is expected to be tight.

TEXT: The contest for 50 parliamentary seats in the breakaway republic of Northern Cyprus is between a bloc of parties favoring re-unification with the Greek Cypriot south and consequent entry into the European Union, and right wing parties that favor the status quo.

The outcome will affect Turkey's chances of joining the European club. European leaders have indicated that Turkish membership cannot be considered until significant progress is achieved toward ending the 30-year-old dispute between the island's Greek Cypriot majority and some 200-thousand Turkish islanders who control its northern third.

Opinion polls indicate that the ruling National Unity Party led by a former medical doctor, Dervis Eroglu, is running neck and neck with the left-leaning pro-re-unification bloc led by an engineer, Mehmet Ali Talat.

Analysts say if Mr. Eroglu is defeated, it will be a huge blow for Rauf Denktash, the veteran Turkish Cypriot leader who would then be unseated as chief negotiator in re-unification talks. Mr. Denktash has sought international recognition of his self-declared Republic of Northern Cyprus and permanent partition of the island. He has rejected the latest U-N peace plan to end the long running Cyprus dispute.

International sanctions compounded by decades of massive corruption and economic mismanagement under the right-wing parties has fueled public fury. Earlier this year, thousands of Turkish Cypriots staged mass demonstrations calling on Mr. Denktash to resign.

In a bid to defuse tensions, he threw open the north's borders for the first time since the island was divided in 1974.

Greek and Cypriot islanders have since poured across the Green Line partitioning separating them. No incidents of violence have been reported, bolstering hopes for a peaceful settlement.

Analysts say that no matter who wins elections here, the final say on the Turkish Cypriots' future lies with Turkey. Its prime minister, Tayyip Erdogan is widely known to favor a solution to the Cyprus problem if only to smooth Turkey's entry into the European Union improve relations with Greece. But Turkey's military leaders are said to be opposed to any deal.

Meantime, E-U leaders have pledged to allow the Greek Cypriots to enter their Union next May even if the island remains divided. (SIGNED)

NEB/AZ/DW/RAE