Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

18 November 2003

AFGHANISTAN

• AP writes that in a decision that could affect tens of thousands of Afghan refugees, the UN refugee agency began pulling foreign staff out of large swaths of southern and eastern Afghanistan Tuesday. The dispatch notes that the decision follows a series of attacks on the UN in recent days, including the killing of a French worker. It also quotes ACBAR, an umbrella group of 86 aid agencies working in Afghanistan, saying several international aid organizations operating in the south also held an emergency meeting to discuss “options which may include the withdrawal from the southern region of Afghanistan.” In a related broadcast, the BBC World Service quoted a senior Taliban official saying Tuesday that the movement was behind the killing of the French UN worker. The official reportedly said western aid workers, journalists and their afghan employees were all legitimate targets. The program quoted correspondents saying remnants of the Taliban were trying to force foreign aid agencies out of eastern Afghanistan to secure the region for opium cultivation and hardline Islamic rule. In another development, Reuters reports Turkey said Tuesday it had established a link to Afghanistan in the weekend suicide bombings of two Istanbul synagogues. “It has emerged that there is a link with an organization in Afghanistan in terms of belief and understanding,” the dispatch quotes Turkish foreign Minister Gul saying.

A perception that the situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating appears to be shifting the media’s focus to the ISAF mission.
Under the title, “NATO on trial as Afghanistan spins out of control,” Reuters claims that the 5,700-strong multinational force keeping the peace in Kabul has just three helicopters and comments: “So much for NATO’s plans to expand ISAF into lawless hinterlands of the country, where Taliban militia are back on the offensive and warlords are thriving on a resurgent opium drug trade.” The dispatch observes, however, that NATO’s takeover of the Afghan operation was a morale-booster for an organization plunged into self-doubt and torn by a row over the war in Iraq. “The ISAF mission vindicated two years of painstaking efforts by NATO Secretary General Robertson to transform the Cold War Alliance to face new and global security threats. And that is why he is now frantically signaling that NATO’s new found credibility will stand or fall in Afghanistan,” the dispatch stresses, quoting Lord Robertson saying: “If we fail, we will find Afghanistan on all of our doorsteps. Worse still, NATO’s credibility will be shattered, along with that of every NATO government.” Recalling that NATO agreed last month to extend the ISAF mission, the dispatch continues: The ultimate goal is for NATO to support several PRTs. The problem for NATO, according to military planners, is that if it takes even two of these teams under its wing it will need an additional protection force of 2,000-3,000 troops, combat and transport helicopters, communications equipment and a forward operating base perhaps in neighboring Tajikistan or Kyrgyzstan. Given that the Alliance cannot even find the 12 helicopters and the intelligence officers it needs to do its basic job in Kabul---or muster forces necessary to take command of security at the capital’s airport—such a goal seems a long way off. The dispatch also notes that during a recent trip to Afghanistan, Gen. Jones told reporters that “political will is fine,” but “we haven’t fully resourced the first mission, so let’s temper the enthusiasm a bit.” The dispatch, which stresses that “NATO has done just that,” explains: NATO has agreed only to back a new German PRT in Kunduz, which will in any case enjoy protection form German helicopters stationed on the Uzbek border, and to make temporary deployments of ISAF troops outside Kabul to oversee elections and a disarmament program.
Noting that the U.S. State and Defense Department officials are giving the impression that the situation in Afghanistan is deteriorating and that it has the potential to make “victory in the war against terrorism” more difficult, Istanbul’s Milliyet, Nov. 17, wrote: “Although Afghanistan appears to be a side show to Iraq and a ‘secondary front,’ Washington understands the importance of the efforts to reverse the negative course of events there and believes that Turkey may contribute to these efforts…. Now that NATO and the UN have approved the deployment of ISAF in regions outside Kabul, the United States wants certain military deficiencies to be remedied without delay. For example, there is a serious shortage of helicopters. The doors of many countries, including Turkey, may be knocked on this issue.”
“It was Afghanistan, not Iraq, that was the spawning ground for the Sept. 11 attacks. And now, Afghanistan is in danger of reverting to a deadly combination of rule by warlords and the Taliban, the allies and protectors of Osama bin Laden,” warns the New York Times. Stressing that a revived Taliban army, flush with new recruits from Pakistan, is staging a frightening comeback and that major cities remain in the hands of the corrupt and brutal warlords, the article notes: Much of the countryside is too dangerous for aid workers. The Karzai government rules Kabul and little else. Opium poppies are once again a major export crop. And Osama bin Laden remains at large. Unless far more is done to establish security in the many areas where it is still lacking and to reinforce the authority of the Karzai government, there can be no economic and political revival. There is a very real risk that soon, Afghanistan may once again turn into a sanctuary and training ground for Al Qaeda and other international terrorists.

IRAQ

• The Financial Times quotes diplomats saying Monday that several EU countries are backing a British initiative to train Iraqi security forces ahead of a planned U.S. handover of power by next June. According to the newspaper, Britain is arranging, with the support of other countries, to have 25,000 Iraqis trained over coming weeks at three locations in the region: the Jordanian Police Academy in Amman, the police schools in the Iraqi city of Basra and in the United Arab Emirates.

BALKANS

• According to a AFP, Defense Secretary Hoon told reporters in Brussels Monday that Britain is willing to lead an EU peacekeeping operation in Bosnia once NATO decides to pull out. Hoon reportedly said much remained to be worked out, “not least crucially getting an appropriate conclusion to the NATO operation so that then if there is to be an EU operation, it can be taken forward.” But, he added, Britain would be willing to lead such an operation once all of those conditions have been satisfied. The dispatch quotes sources saying the EU force could be deployed in the middle of next year and comprise 6,000 troops under British command.