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UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs |
ERITREA-ETHIOPIA: Feature: A question of timing
ADDIS ABABA, 26 September 2003 (IRIN) - In the end, say analysts, it all came down to timing. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi's call for a new body to resolve the impasse in the peace process with Eritrea surprised few seasoned observers.
It was always a matter of when, not if, according to analysts of the three year old “cold peace” between the two sides.
“This is a continuation of the government’s line,” said conflict adviser and Ethiopian academic Medhane Tadesse. “And the timing is perfect.”
He points to the end of party conferences in Ethiopia, the impending demarcation, and perhaps more crucially the meeting of the UN General Assembly in New York.
“I don’t think this is any kind of shift in Ethiopia's policy,” Medhane told IRIN. “And the General Assembly meant all eyes were focused.”
NEED FOR "VIGOROUS DIPLOMACY"
Border demarcation, twice postponed and now due to start next month, should have marked the final chapter in what began with a bloody war between two impoverished nations - a war they could ill-afford.
The ruling by an independent boundary commission aimed to settle the 1,000 km border which was not clearly demarcated when Eritrea formally gained independence from Ethiopia in 1993.
But the decision, announced in April 2002 and clarified in March 2003, provoked dismay in Ethiopia over the awarding of certain territories to Eritrea, particularly the town of Badme - flashpoint of the war. Ethiopia has been seeking changes to the ruling and the process is effectively stuck.
Now Meles, in a three-page letter to the Security Council, aims to “break the deadlock” by proposing a new body to rule on the contested areas.
Critics argue that the letter undermines the Algiers peace agreement signed by the sides in December 2000. Eritrea is obviously opposed and has stated there can be no renegotiation of the border.
The International Crisis Group, a conflict resolution advocacy group, argues that the international community must now act to avert a crisis.
It calls for “creative” measures and “immediate public diplomacy” to make acceptance of the decision “politically palatable” to Ethiopia.
“The integrity of the peace agreement is on the brink of being compromised,” said John Prendergast of the ICG. “Vigorous diplomacy is needed now.”
But Medhane disagrees. He says Ethiopia has kept within the spirit of the agreement and offered a solution to the impasse.
“The peace process has been stuck,” Medhane added. “I don’t think it is in danger but this means one thing – that demarcation will take a long time."
“The government thinks the commission has transgressed the legal aspects on deciding on the western border [where Badme is situated].”
MELES UNDER PRESSURE
Diplomats say there is no question that Prime Minister Meles is under enormous domestic pressure to bring about changes to the controversial ruling. Yet Ethiopia’s earlier appeals for concessions to the ruling have fallen on deaf ears.
While Ethiopia is ready to let certain sectors be marked out, officials say that demarcating contested areas - in particular the town of Badme - could fuel another war.
Eritrea, meanwhile, is totally opposed to a sector-by-sector demarcation and insists the ruling was “final and binding” and should now be implemented in full.
Both countries, say observers, have good arguments and acknowledge that both agreed to accept the ruling as “final and binding” and to “expeditiously” demarcate the border.
But, they say, while Ethiopia should meet the demands of the Algiers agreement, everyone wants lasting peace in a region ravaged by wars and under-development.
So it came as little surprise, said observers, that Meles indicated in his letter that the current ruling would simply lead to further “recurring” wars.
“We are stumped about what to try next,” admitted one senior diplomat in the Ethiopian capital who is close to the peace process.
Diplomats fail to see how Meles can juggle both domestic pressures with the demands of the international community which has invested millions of dollars in both countries and is calling for the October timetable to be met.
That domestic pressure began to manifest itself last week when 15 opposition groups united, announcing an anti-demarcation ticket as their strategy for the 2005 elections.
The United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF) believe the unwanted ruling could mark the end of the decade-long political stranglehold of the ruling coalition. UEDF president Dr Beyene Petros says the boundary ruling must be re-negotiated.
“The population has rejected it and we as political parties are there to serve the population and interests of the country,” he told journalists.
POVERTY THE ENEMY
Eventually the future of the territories may finally come down to economics.
The international community bankrolls Ethiopia to the tune of US $900 million a year and the government has emphasised that the real enemy is poverty, not Eritrea.
“It is believed that the major threat to our security emanates from our poverty and backwardness,” says Information Minister Bereket Simon.
For now, Meles has seen off any potential criticism over demarcation within his own party - the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The subject was not mentioned at the bi-annual conference, which ended last Thursday, despite its political heartland which borders Eritrea.
And demarcation failed to make it onto the agenda of a key congress of the ruling Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition – the last before the 2005 elections - which ended at the weekend.
The government has also put the finishing touches to the country’s newly formed foreign and security policy strategy, which has been publicly released.
Medhane believes Meles has made his position clear as a result of the party conferences and the new foreign policy. He argues that both the international community and the UN now need to “bridge the gap” between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
“Time is the key to the whole process,” he says. “Ethiopia is not ready to reject the whole decision. What they want are more clarifications and some concessions.
“The international community should not rush. If there is an untimely or forceful push I think they could jeopardise the whole process."
Themes: (IRIN) Conflict
[ENDS]
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