Military

DATE=9-23-03

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-794

TITLE=US-ARAFAT

BYLINE=DAVID BORGIDA

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

INTRODUCTION

Ms. Judy Barsalou, of the U.S. Institute of Peace, talks about recent U.S. policies towards Yasser Arafat and his government.

MR. BORGIDA

And now joining us, Judy Barsalou of the U.S. Institute of Peace. Thanks so much for being with us to talk a little bit about the Middle East situation. I want to ask you at the top about a comment that President Bush made today at the UN He said the Palestinian people deserve their own state. We know he has said that before. But then he said they will gain that state by embracing new leaders committed to reform.

We know that he has been critical of Yasser Arafat, but who are the new leaders he is referring to? And are there new leaders there that can be relied on for the road ahead?

MS. BARSALOU

Well, the United States has played this line earlier in trying to, I think, remove Arafat from power and to embrace a new prime minister who came along about three or four months ago, Abu Mazen. In the process, though, it actually gave Arafat more legitimacy than he might otherwise have enjoyed. And of course the Abu Mazen government has now fallen.

It's not clear who these new leaders might be. There is a new government in formation which has yet to be solidified, led by Abu Allah, who is very close to Yasser Arafat and who is unlikely to win the full approval of the U.S. Government for that reason.

MR. BORGIDA

Well, this is why I asked, because clearly Mr. Arafat is digging in. And yet at the same time the Bush administration, without being critical -- I'm asking in a legitimate way here -- who are these new leaders that we're hoping to rely on for the road ahead? Again I ask, are there people that are in the wings, as often happens in some governments in some context, where another government looking in can pin their hopes on someone else?

MS. BARSALOU

I think it's hard to say that there are such people in the wings. Because Arafat, of course, himself was elected in a national election. And the Palestinians consider him to be the sort of duly elected legitimate leader of the Palestinian people. Short of having new elections, which have not been possible because of the continuing occupation and the closedown of the Occupied Territories, it's hard to see how you would legitimize new leaders who might come to the fore.

The leaders on the streets, the increasingly popular Hamas movement for example, would not be acceptable either to Israel or to the United States. And so this is a really tough line for the United States to try to take.

MR. BORGIDA

Thank you. That's why I've been asking the question, at the risk of pursuing it ad nauseam.

Let me ask you a little bit about the issues of ceasefire, because that too has been knocked around a little bit, a ceasefire here and there. What do you see on the horizon in terms of a holding ceasefire?

MS. BARSALOU

Well, I don't see anything likely to happen soon. I think the Israelis are insisting, as is the United States, that the terrorist organizations be dismantled. The question of course is whether or not the Palestinians have both the will and the capability of doing that. And I think there are strong reasons to believe on both counts that they do not. And so their ability to deliver on a ceasefire is limited.

Israel, on the other hand, really has not shown too much interest, frankly, in a ceasefire. The Abu Allah government and Arafat recently offered a ceasefire, which Israel quickly dismissed.

MR. BORGIDA

And the explanation by the Sharon government is?

MS. BARSALOU

That they wanted to see terrorist organizations dismantled before they would contemplate a mutual ceasefire.

MR. BORGIDA

Now, is that talking about perhaps certain expectations -- and this is a game that is always played in these contexts -- is that an unfair expectation by the Israelis?

MS. BARSALOU

Well, perhaps. I would argue that it probably is. Much of the physical capability of the Palestinians to police themselves was dismantled when Israel reoccupied most of the West Bank and Gaza a year ago. And so they simply don't have the firepower that they once had in order to bring these people to terms. They also don't have the inclination to do so. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are very popular organizations and getting more popular by the day. And to try to bring them to heel would risk civil war. And so Palestinian leaders are very reluctant to go that far.

MR. BORGIDA

We just reported a moment ago that the Saudis were having a little clash with alleged militants at a hospital in the southern part of the country. I know this is springing this on you, but is the Saudi battle with militants internally a real problem for them or is this something that they are managing?

MS. BARSALOU

I think it's a major challenge for them. Clearly there is quite a bit of depth in Saudi Arabia in terms of terrorist capabilities. We've seen that now in several incidents in the last year. And I think they have quite a task at hand to try to bring these people under control.

MR. BORGIDA

Well, a task at hand both in Saudi Arabia for their own situation regarding militants internally but also a very difficult task at hand for both the Israeli Government and Mr. Arafat, and we will be keeping a close watch on all these events.

Judy Barsalou of the U.S. Institute of Peace. Judy, thanks for joining us today.

MS. BARSALOU

My pleasure.

(End of interview.)

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