Military

DATE=9-10-03

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-788

TITLE=MIDDLE EAST

BYLINE=DAVID BORGIDA

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

CONTENT=

INTRODUCTION

Mr. Jonathan Schanzer, a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, discusses current events in the Middle East and the "roadmap" peace process. Mr. Schanzer specializes in radical Islamic movements.

MR. BORGIDA

And now joining us, Jonathan Schanzer, a Middle East expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Mr. Schanzer, thanks for being with us today. You've been with us before, so we'll move quickly into the story.

I guess my first question is: What can the new prime minister nominee do that Mr. Abbas couldn't do in keeping some of this violence off the streets?

MR. SCHANZER

Well, I would say that Abu Mazen was a political neophyte. He didn't really have what it took, didn't have the support of the people on the street, and certainly didn't have the support of Yasser Arafat himself. Ahmad Korei, or Abu Allah as he is known, could have more support on the street. He certainly has the support, it seems, of Yasser Arafat, who has now nominated him, and also has a good deal of experience inside the Palestinian Legislative Council, the PLC.

MR. BORGIDA

But does having the support of Mr.~Arafat in this context mean that peace prospects with Israel are any greater, or might it not be so?

MR. SCHANZER

I think it's difficult. I think Arafat in this equation, in any way, is going to make this a lot more difficult. He undercut Abbas. He didn't want Abbas to have any more power than was absolutely necessary in his view. He sent people out on the streets, demonstrating against him. He would actually physically have people roughed up, some of the reformers who supported Abbas. This is the kind of thing that Arafat can do if he doesn't like you. If he likes Abu Allah, then perhaps this guy has a better chance of moving forward with the peace process.

MR. BORGIDA

Well, clearly it's a burden on both sides. And if the targeted killings continue as they have, what chance is there for the road map to be successful?

MR. SCHANZER

As long as the targeted killings and the Hamas suicide bombings continue, this is really going nowhere. This is a cycle of violence that has the potential to escalate to levels unseen, I think, before. We haven't seen an all-out war, as it's now being called, between Hamas and the Israelis. And I think the Israelis will stop at nothing to get rid of the top leadership.

We've seen I think at least 14 of these targeted killings over the last month. I don't see any sign of them stopping -- and one has to understand where they're coming from. Also, it will be difficult for anybody stepping in on the Palestinian side to help try to promote peace.

MR. BORGIDA

And yet, as we just heard in our report, President Bush, engaging in perhaps what some might describe as wishful thinking, was saying the road map is still on the table, hoping against hope that this doesn't spiral not just into more and more violence but out of control.

MR. SCHANZER

Right. I think that the road map, there's nothing wrong with pushing forward with this road map. I think that the major problem, if I'm to identify one, is that it appears right now among the Palestinians that there is not one voice speaking out for "We're all for peace," "We're not for peace."

You have Hamas. You have Islamic Jihad. You have the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. You have people within Fatah that are split, as well as from the leaders. Now you have a split between Abbas and Arafat. You're watching a real fragmentation right now among the Palestinian people, and I think that will probably be the biggest obstacle to pushing forward with this road map.

MR. BORGIDA

Well, can Mr. Korei -- kind of getting us full circle in this conversation -- can he do more to restrain Hamas and other militants?

MR. SCHANZER

I think he can try. I think it will really depend on whether Arafat lets him. But I also think that there has been longstanding friction between Fatah, the ruling party, which is headed by Arafat, and Hamas. The two of them are vying for power basically. They actually fought in the streets back in November. This will be up to them to decide whether they want to let Arafat and company dismantle them and move forward.

MR. BORGIDA

The situation in the Middle East is getting very, very, very difficult. Jonathan Schanzer, a Middle East expert at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, thanks for joining us. We appreciate it.

MR. SCHANZER

Thank you, David.

(End of interview.)

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