Military

DATE=9-9-03

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-787

TITLE=DORAN-MIDDLE EAST

BYLINE=DAVID BORGIDA

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTRODUCTION

Dr. Charles Doran, a professor of International Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, discusses the latest developments in the Middle East.

MR. BORGIDA

And now joining us to discuss the Middle East situation, Dr. Charles Doran, Professor of International Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Thanks for joining us.

DR. DORAN

My pleasure.

MR. BORGIDA

A busy day in that part of the world. Let's talk a little bit about Palestinian politics. The confusion there and the gamesmanship, is it making matters worse on the ground and creating more of an atmosphere for violence or not? What do you think?

DR. DORAN

Well, I think it's difficult to sort of give public instructions on each side to the negotiators. And so what is happening now is that the new candidate is trying to establish some kind of rules as far as he's concerned, in terms of before he takes the job. I think that won't work. I think what one has to do is provide support, quiet support, for whoever the new candidate is, and then see what he can do.

MR. BORGIDA

Sir, you're referring to Mr. Qureia, and what do you know of him and his approach to what is a powder keg political situation?

DR. DORAN

Well, it's probably not a good idea to try to characterize fully the background. What we really need to do is to see what in fact he is willing to do, how much responsibility, how much support he has, and whether in fact he can provide a little bit of cohesiveness, a little bit of integration, in what is at this point simply a very divided Palestinian effort.

MR. BORGIDA

The Israelis and the Bush administration are not particularly happy with Mr. Arafat and are saying so publicly. What role does he play? Must he modify his approach, his rhetoric, his stance, or will Yasser Arafat always be Yasser Arafat and the rest of the world is going to work with him?

DR. DORAN

Well, it's difficult to know in the long term where he's going to be, but at this point it looks as though he has prevailed. And the previous prime minister was not able, obviously, to carry out the policies that he hoped to. And so he had a choice, and that was to resign.

Now, what one has to do is to give some political support to Mr. Qureia so that hopefully there can be some staying capacity and one can begin to stabilize this relationship a bit.

MR. BORGIDA

Let's answer the question we asked our audience at the top of the show. You've said Mr. Arafat has prevailed. Does this ipso facto mean, by definition, that the peace plan, the road map peace plan, is dead or dying?

DR. DORAN

I don't think that that can be a judgment made at all. In fact, I would not think that it's in anybody's interest to see the road map dead. If there is one thing that one learns from 30 years of studying this relationship, it is you've got to have an ongoing peace process.

MR. BORGIDA

But it doesn't appear to be much of a process at the moment, does it?

DR. DORAN

Well, in fact, there are various phases and there are various stages, and the candidates and participants will change over time. But what one never does is to abandon the peace process. That in fact is the recipe for deeper problems.

MR. BORGIDA

Now, Dr. Doran, briefly, you see some link with the situation in Iraq. Can you explain that in about a minute or so?

DR. DORAN

Well, what has happened currently is that developments in the Gulf area now seem to have some relationship to events in the Arab-Israeli dispute and vice versa. And what that I think does is simply to complicate the set of negotiations. It's best to keep these things as separate as possible. And in fact I think those people who are interested in peace in the area have no doubt about the importance of in fact keeping these things divided.

MR. BORGIDA

Professor Charles Doran, with the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, thank you so much for being with us. We appreciate it.

DR. DORAN

I'm happy to be here.

(End of interview.)

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