Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

4 September 2003

GENERAL JONES

• Ankara has conveyed the message to Gen. Jones that Turkey can have a division headquarters established in the area that will be given to it in Iraq and deploy a brigade there as the first step if it decides to contribute toward the stability force in the region, writes Istanbul’s Milliyet. Allegedly based on sources in the General Staff, the newspaper adds: “It has been ascertained that the Turkish side conveyed the message that the U.S. request for a brigade to be deployed in Baghdad and in an area in the western part of the capital can be met. Gen. Jones was informed that a military unit made up of 3,500-4,000 men can be dispatched to Iraq and that the number of troops can be increased to 10,000 men if necessary.” Reporting on Wednesday’s handover of the control of south-central Iraq to a Polish-led multinational division, the BBC World Service and The Guardian observe that the handover, which marked the first phase in the process of the U.S. and Britain sharing out their military burden, came as Gen. Jones discussed a possible deployment of Turkish troops in Iraq with the leadership in Ankara.
  
  
• In an interview with Brussels’ English-language weekly The Bulletin, Gen. Jones explains, among other things, his vision for the future NATO operations. The article says: “NATO originally came about to protect Western Europe from the Soviet threat, and the geo-political fault-line ran right through Germany. Now (Gen.) Jones wants to move to a ‘lilypad concept’—with a few ‘main operating bases’ …, plus smaller ‘forward operating bases’ … to which forces would jump at a moment’s notice.” Noting that Gen. Jones “speaks with passion” about transforming NATO into a “pro-active, expeditionary, rapid and credible force that should be considerably smaller than it is today but much more useful,” the article stresses that “this line of thinking takes him into dangerous political waters.” It notes: “At present NATO operates by consensus: no action is taken unless all members agree. But when NATO expands … (Gen.) Jones says this might have to change, if NATO’s new Response Force is to be able to launch at just five days’ notice.” Gen. Jones is quoted saying: “NATO has to consider, as it expands, whether its parliamentary rules for making decisions are valid in terms of the requirements of force utilization in the 21st century.” The article, which also highlights that Gen. Jones was brought up in Europe and understands European culture well, concludes: “Gen. Jones will need all his European intuition if he’s going to persuade ‘Old’ Europe that its objections could be overridden if a majority of ‘New’ NATO members decide on action. It would have meant, for instance, that NATO could have gone into Iraq, against the wishes of some members. That’s nothing short of a revolution in the Alliance.”

NRF

• According to a plan from the defense chief, supported by the Defense Minister and a majority in Parliament, in future, the Danish military will be able to deploy modern, self-sufficient units to international conflicts on short notice. The old mobilization-based military will disappear. Domestic defense will consist of a total defense, including both military and civil defense, which will be able to react, in particular, to terrorism and major accidents, wrote Berlingske Tidende, Sept. 2. The article continued: “Quick in and quick out will be the mantra of the Danish military in the coming years, based on the English model and the wishes of NATO. Smaller, but sharper. Denmark will help establish NATO’s NRF.” The article stressed, however, that while the government is making a strong effort to become capable of deploying self-sufficient forces on short notice, government advisers are also abandoning another mantra that has been fashionable at NATO, namely the idea that countries could specialize in various areas. Political feuds within NATO which preceded the Iraq war have underlined the risk inherent in that type of participation, the newspaper said. Instead, it added, officials are calling for a specialization in certain types of operations.

ISAF

• The Times reports that British soldiers in Afghanistan have caught Haji Qalam, an alleged Al Qaeda terrorist believed to be responsible for the suicide-bombing of a German army bus in Kabul in June. The newspaper claims that the raid, involving more than 100 British soldiers, was planned in conditions of utmost secrecy after it was revealed that Qalam had high-level contacts with Afghan authorities. According to the newspaper, security sources claim that there was unease amongst Kabul’s international community that a raid, targeting an armed man in central Kabul, could result in a backlash against ISAF.

BALKANS

• AFP quotes a police official saying Bosnian Serb police Wednesday launched their first-ever operation to arrest top war crimes suspect Radovan Karadzic, but failed to find him. Police raided the house of an Orthodox Serb bishop in Bijeljina after receiving a tip-off that Karadzic was hiding there, the official reportedly said. The dispatch notes that a spokesman for the High Representative in Bosnia, Paddy Ashdown, stressed that the Bosnian Serb police operation deserved praised. “The very fact that the RS police have done what they are supposed to do is commendable, it’s very positive,” the spokesman reportedly indicated.

TRANSATLANTIC RELATIONS

A transatlantic survey which tracked a shift in transatlantic relations is generating high interest.
The U.S.-led war in Iraq has led to some of the most radical shifts in the transatlantic relationship since 1945 with Germany for the first time choosing Europe over the U.S. and most Americans wanting the EU to play a stronger role, writes the Financial Times. The newspaper observes that the findings, published on Thursday by the German Marshall Fund (GMF) of the U.S., convey a mixed set of opinions: They show how Americans now want the U.S. to take an active role in world affairs. However, remaining as the only superpower is another matter. Forty-seven percent of Americans want the U.S. to retain that role—down from last year’s 52 percent—but 37 percent (2 percent more than in 2002) want the EU to become a superpower capable of sharing the costs and risks of global problems. The newspaper adds that according to the poll’s results, Europeans want to become a partner of the U.S. instead of relying on it. Forty-five percent, compared with 64 percent in 2002, see strong U.S. leadership as desirable—with Britain, the Netherlands and Poland strongly backing such a role while majorities in France, Germany and Italy strongly oppose it. But, the newspaper continues, GMF says the “one eye-catching change” is the sharp shift among Germans. Last year, Germany was uncertain about its global role and whether Europe or the U.S. was its natural partner. Such uncertainty has now disappeared. Eighty-two percent want Germany to play an active role, up from last year’s 65 percent, and 70 percent would back the EU becoming a superpower, up from 48 percent in 2002. The article notes, however, that if that role meant spending more on defense, support across Europe would plummet to 36 percent.

A related article in the Washington Post remarks that according to the poll, Europeans want to see the EU become a superpower but want this superpower to cooperate with, rather than compete against, the United States. But, adds the daily, at the same time, a sizeable majority of Europeans do not want the EU to drastically increase defense spending.

Assessing the poll’s results, the New York Times concludes that “the trans-Atlantic split over war in Iraq has undermined America’s standing with Europeans.”