Military

DATE=8-14-03

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-767

TITLE=CUBA

BYLINE JAMES BERTEL

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTRODUCTION

A Cuban court has given prison terms to six Cubans who hijacked a boat in an attempt to reach the United States. The incident has stirred some political waves in the U.S. involving the Bush Administration. Here to discuss the incident is Daniel Erikson, Director of Caribbean Programs at the Inter-American Dialogue.

MR. BERTEL

Joining me to discuss U.S. policy towards Cuba is Daniel Erikson, Director of Caribbean Programs at the Inter-American Dialogue. Mr. Erikson, thank you for being with us.

Let's begin with the case that Dave Ungrady just mentioned in his report. Why were these Cubans sent back when Washington knew they were going to end up in prison?

MR. ERIKSON

Well, I think one issue here is the issue of security relations between the U.S. and Cuba. And certainly the U.S. wants to send a signal to Cuba that it's not acceptable to have large waves of migrants coming to the United States' shores. So, for that reason, I feel like the U.S. felt like it had to set a precedent by sending these people back. And in fact they were hijackers. They weren't just migrants or rafters who were found out on the open waters.

MR. BERTEL

Well, briefly explain to us the U.S. policy on refugees trying to come to the United States from Cuba. When are they granted asylum?

MR. ERIKSON

The policy is known as wet foot/dry foot, which basically means if you are caught at sea or picked up by the Coast Guard, you're returned to Cuba. If you actually make it to the Florida shores, or any other point in the United States for that matter, then you are granted asylum and you're on the track to a one-year residency. And so that's really the determining factor -- do you make it to shore or are you caught at sea? These people were caught at sea.

MR. BERTEL

In Miami and southern Florida there is a large Cuban-American political bloc. These are Cuban Americans who have very strong thoughts on what the policy should be towards Cuba. Earlier this month several State legislators in Florida sent a letter to the White House demanding stronger policies towards Cuba. Will tougher measures bring about change in the political system in Cuba?

MR. ERIKSON

I think it's very difficult to predict any change in the political system there while Fidel Castro rules the Island. He has been there for a very long time. He's managed the Island through a series of both political and economic crises. And I think that really it's quite likely that he will maintain control until the end of his reign. So what the United States should be looking for is how to prepare for a soft landing after Fidel Castro leaves.

MR. BERTEL

Is there anything short of Fidel Castro leaving power to make relations between Havana and Washington stronger?

MR. ERIKSON

Well, the United States and Cuba do share a series of bilateral interests around things like migration, counternarcotics cooperation as well, so they could pursue some interests that don't have specifically to do with democracy. The problem with Cuba-U.S. relations is democracy is the deal breaker. That's what the United States wants. That's what Cuba will not give. And while there are other issues at the margins, and those are issues where progress can be made, on the issue of changing the nature of the political regime it's very difficult to make progress.

MR. BERTEL

Now, something that leaves a lot of people wondering about Cuban policy is the fact that here it is a communist nation, Vietnam also is a communist nation, and yet Washington was able to normalize relations with Vietnam, a country that we went to war with, and still cannot normalize relations with Cuba. What is the difference?

MR. ERIKSON

Well, I think one of the key differences is there is a very invested voting bloc in the United States on U.S. policy towards Cuba, unlike U.S. policy towards Vietnam. If you actually look at the history of the relationship between the U.S. and Vietnam, Vietnam War vets actually did play a key role in at first slowing down progress towards normalization and then eventually agreeing to it.

In Miami, there really have been some changes in terms of how the public opinion among Cuban Americans view this issue. They are more open to travel to Cuba. They are more open to humanitarian support, to support for pro-democracy activists on the Island. And so there is a softening. But on the issue of democracy, people are really trying to hold the line. And that determines much of what U.S. policy is.

MR. BERTEL

And U.S. policy has pretty much not changed over the past 40 years. Is it really about changing Cuba or is it about that strong political bloc in Florida?

MR. ERIKSON

I think it's about both. I think that people in Florida are beginning to recognize that some of the strategies that have been used to this point really haven't been effective. But at the same time Cuba is the only country in the hemisphere that's not a democracy. The United States and some of the international bodies of the hemisphere, like the Organization of American States, have been strongly supportive of trying to move Cuba towards democracy.

And so I think there are two issues here. And one is certainly what's best for the Cuban people on the Island and one is sort of navigating through the various political concerns not just of Florida but also with agricultural producers in the United States who want to sell to Cuba -- now there is certain food trades -- and so there are various constituencies in the mix here.

MR. BERTEL

We have about 20 seconds left. The U.S. seems to be going it alone in its policy towards Cuba. Can it realistically isolate Cuba in today's globalized economy?

MR. ERIKSON

I think that has proven to be very, very difficult. There are a number of different countries that invest in Cuba. Cuba gets around a million tourists from countries like Canada, Europe, other areas in Latin America. Certainly Cuba still has allies in parts of the world and in the Caribbean, and in China as well. And so I think that isolating Cuba in the age of globalization has just proved very hard. The most success that has occurred is when the Cuban Government has isolated itself, not because the U.S. is trying to isolate it.

MR. BERTEL

Daniel Erikson from the Inter-American Dialogue, thanks for being with us.

MR. ERIKSON

Thank you.

(End of interview.)

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