Military

DATE=08-12-03

TYPE=DATELINE

TITLE=TURMOIL IN HONG KONG

NUMBER=7-37735

BYLINE=JAROSLAW ANDERS

TELEPHONE=619 0252

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

EDITOR=CAROL CASTIEL

CONTENT=

DISK: DATELINE THEME [PLAYED IN STUDIO, FADED UNDER DATELINE HOST VOICE OR PROGRAMMING MATERIAL]

HOST: In Hong Kong last month, massive pro-democracy demonstrations erupted after the Beijingcontrolled government tried to restrict civil liberties. Now, authorities in Hong Kong are cautiously trying to reintroduce the same controversial political reforms that sparked such pro-democracy protests in the first place. In this Dateline report, analysts say that Beijing worries that Hong Kong's political turmoil may spill over to the mainland. Here is Bob Doughty.

ANNCR: On July 1st, the sixth anniversary of Britain's hand-over of Hong Kong to China, the territory's chief executive, Tung Chee-hwa, announced that he would introduce a disputed anti-subversion law. Critics called it a threat to freedom of speech, press, and assembly. A few hours after the announcement an estimated half-million people were in the streets demonstrating against the law and calling for Mr. Tung's resignation.

Timothy Cooper, international director of the Free China Movement, says the demonstrators proved they care about politics as much as they do about the economy.

TAPE: CUT #1: COOPER [FM ANDERS]

"You had old people in wheel chairs, you had young mothers pushing toddlers in strollers, you had young children, you had business executives, you had democracy activists, you had the middle class. You had the full complexion of Hong Kong turning out in the streets to say no, to draw a line in the sand, and say, 'This far and no further.' And it worked."

ANNCR: The scale and organization of the protests surprised authorities, who agreed to postpone the controversial legislation. Hong Kong's two least popular ministers, responsible for the economy and security, resigned. The demonstrations proved a major embarrassment to China's new premier Wen Jiabao, who had gone to Hong Kong to celebrate the anniversary of the territory's return to mainland China. Dissatisfaction with Tung Chee-hwa's regime was apparent even before the anti-subversion law was introduced. Hong Kong had been struggling with economic problems and with the SARS crisis. And democratic activists had warned against what they saw as the relentless erosion of civil liberties.

So, why did the government in Beijing decide to push the contentious act at this time? Professor Nancy Berknopf-Tucker, of Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, believes it simply had no choice.

TAPE: CUT #2: TUCKER [FM ANDERS]

"I think that the expectation is that there would be continuing problems. The economy is not getting better. It probably will not get better any time soon, and as time moves forward, pressures for democratization are going to increase. As far as Beijing is concerned, as those pressures for democratization increase, the need for a subversion law is going to go up. So this seemed as good a time as any to move ahead on something that everybody knew would be very controversial."

ANNCR: Beijing's reaction to the protests has been cautious and muted. Chinese leaders expressed their support for Tung Chee-hwa. But they refrained from publicly acknowledging the protests, despite the fact that millions of mainland Chinese could watch the demonstrations on Hong Kong television. Veron Hung, a Hong Kong lawyer and fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says that the Chinese authorities are still deciding whether to consider the events as a local problem or as a threat to political stability in China.

TAPE: CUT #3: HUNG [FM ANDERS]

"They, the Beijing leaders, actually feel a bit confused. They need a lot of time to understand what's going on in Hong Kong. And in fact, it is my observation that all these demonstrations are against the Tung administration only. Hong Kong people are not against the central government."

ANNCR: Ms. Hung points out that the central Chinese leadership enjoys a far more popular support in Hong Kong than does the local administration. Professor Tucker of Georgetown University agrees:

TAPE: CUT #4: TUCKER [FM ANDERS]

"I think that, if the Hong Kong people had an opportunity to indicate their relative assessment openly, then yes, they would see their local government as more autocratic perhaps than Beijing."

ANNCR: But Professor Tucker adds, that's because Tung Chee-hwa, a former Hong Kong businessman, often takes a more hard-line approach to please China's rulers, whereas Beijing usually distances itself from him when his actions cause public discontent. That does not mean, says Professor Tucker, the leadership in Beijing is willing to abandon the "anti-subversion" measures intended to restrict the freedoms that people in Hong Kong enjoy.

Under Hong Kong's Basic Law, a kind of constitution that China adopted for the territory, it will hold its first democratic elections in 2007. Yet "Article 23" of the Basic Law states that Hong Kong should adopt laws against "sedition, secession, and treason." Such laws would allow the authorities to impose restrictions on the press and on organizations of civil society, if Beijing views their activities as threatening the political order in China.

Jennifer Windsor, executive director of Freedom House, points out that Hong Kong's special status has always been a source of concern for the government in Beijing.

TAPE: CUT #3: WINDSOR [FM ANDERS]

"Hong Kong was, of course, a major source of support for democracy activists in China, and that was clearly the reason why Article 23 was put in the Basic Law in the first place."

ANNCR: Chinese leaders, says Jennifer Windsor, are especially troubled by Hong Kong-based human rights observers, as well as by trade union and religious organizations, which keep in touch with underground activists in China. James Lilley, a former U-S ambassador to China and fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, says those concerns are the driving force behind Beijing's policy towards Hong Kong.

TAPE: CUT #6: LILLEY [FM ANDERS]

"I think they're absolutely paranoid about it. I think they want to stop Hong Kong from becoming a base for people in the Catholic Church, the democratic movement, the labor movement, and the Buddhist Wheel Society. They want to stop those things from happening. This is something I think the Chinese always feel nervous about, and they want some sort of control of these groups, and I think that's why they are getting Article 23 and pushing it. But I think the Hong Kong people pushed back, and so Beijing has to redesign their tactics."

ANNCR: According to Ambassador Lilley, Beijing's overall strategy towards Hong Kong has not changed. That is, maintain Hong Kong's special status as proof of the openness and pragmatism of the Chinese leadership, yet try to eliminate the threats the territory poses to the political system in mainland China. Analysts agree that the July 1st protests in Hong Kong were a setback to this difficult balancing act.

Professor Tucker observes that, even though the demonstrators were not chanting anti-Beijing slogans, the central government is afraid their example may prove contagious.

TAPE: CUT #7: TUCKER [FM ANDERS]

"I think that's particularly notable in areas where there are serious unemployment problems and labor unrest and in areas where local officials are particularly oppressive and there are no ways to hold them to account. And I think that's what the central leadership is concerned about - that a desire to hold officials to account will spread more generally."

ANNCR: Analysts say it is difficult to speculate about Hong Kong's future, or about Beijing's long-term intentions toward the territory. Hong Kong native Veron Hung believes that, despite the political risks, Chinese leaders would like to maintain the "one country, two systems" policy.

TAPE: CUT #8: HUNG [FM ANDERS]

"As long as you don't push too hard for full democracy, we allow Hong Kong to keep the status quo. I think this is what Beijing's leaders want. As long as you don't push too hard for full democracy, they'll be very, very happy to maintain the status quo."

ANNCR: In part that's because Beijing hopes that Hong Kong's example may persuade Taiwan to follow suit and join with mainland China. Yet Ambassador Lilley, who recently returned from Taiwan's capital, Taipei, says drawing parallels between Taiwan and Hong Kong can be misleading.

TAPE: CUT #9: LILLEY [FM ANDERS]

"Taiwan is a 23-million population, in fact a country-type arrangement with a Congress, a military, a foreign ministry, a presidency, and democratic elections. Hong Kong has none of that. Hong Kong is very dependent on, very much tied-in to, China. Taiwan is less so."

ANNCR: Ambassador Lilley adds that Taipei interpreted recent events in Hong Kong as proof that the "one country, two systems" arrangement does not work. Some analysts worry that, if Hong Kong loses its role as a model for Taiwan, Beijing may also lose its reason for keeping the territory separate. Analysts say that democracy activists in Hong Kong worry about this possibility.

Timothy Cooper from the Free China Movement believes Hong Kong may try to use the momentum of the July 1st protests to intensify its campaign for full democracy.

TAPE: CUT #10: COOPER [FM ANDERS]

"I think the strategy of the activists involved is to push the democratic movement now that international opinion is clearly on their side, and the focus of the world's attention is on this issue. It is the right time to move forward, and I think that's exactly what they are doing."

ANNCR: Jennifer Windsor of Freedom House also believes that international pressure may decide Hong Kong's fate.

TAPE: CUT #11: WINDSOR [FM ANDERS]

"The activists in Hong Kong have to keep the pressure on, and I would say, absolutely, including the international business community, which I think played a very important and responsible role. And, we hope that they are going to continue to focus on the importance of overall democratic governance for long-term profits, which I think does clearly exist."

ANNCR: That attitude is shared by American politicians and business people. Professor Tucker of Georgetown University observes that the United States has usually maintained a low profile on Hong Kong, although, in her opinion, Washington has a responsibility to raise this issue with Beijing.

TAPE: CUT # 12: TUCKER [FM ANDERS]

"Right now, of course, for the Bush administration, working with Beijing on other issues, like North Korea, is tremendously important. And an issue like Hong Kong doesn't really compare. But at the same time, I think, there has to be a broader agenda, and I would hope that Hong Kong sits somewhere in that broader agenda."

ANNCR: Right now, analysts say, the Beijing government, the Hong Kong administrators, and the territory's democracy activists are clearly pondering their next moves. Recently, Hong Kong chief executive Tung Chee-hwa promised that a new round of public debate on political reforms would begin in the fall.

At the same time, Chinese and Hong Kong officials have announced a gigantic project with both practical and symbolic meaning. A cross-border team will start to plan a 29-kilometer bridge joining Hong Kong with mainland China and Macao. The investment, estimated at 2 billion U-S dollars, is expected to help Hong Kong's sluggish economy and to ease political dissatisfaction.

This Dateline was written by Jaroslaw Anders. From Washington, I'm Bob Doughty.

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