Military

DATE=8-8-03

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-760

TITLE=MIDDLE EAST-VIOLENCE

BYLINE=DAVID BORGIDA

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

INTRODUCTION

Palestinian militants are warning that a deadly raid on a West Bank refugee camp could mean the end for a six-week old cease-fire. At least four Palestinians and an Israeli soldier were killed in the raid. Jeffrey Helsing with the U.S. Institute of Peace talks about the attack and what it might mean to the peace process.

MR. BORGIDA

And now joining us to discuss the latest events in the Middle East, analyst Jeffrey Helsing with the U.S. Institute of Peace. Thanks, Mr. Helsing, for joining us today.

Does it appear that this new violence could in fact disrupt the ceasefire that has been going on for weeks now?

DR. HELSING

It's possible, but I'm not sure it's necessarily inevitable. The Palestinians, in some ways, are winning the war of public relations right now. So it's in their interest, including in Hamas' interest, to maintain the ceasefire.

MR. BORGIDA

Do you think, as the Israelis are suggesting, that the ceasefire has been an opportunity for the Palestinian militant groups to rearm themselves?

DR. HELSING

Possibly, but I think what they're doing more is trying to consolidate their political power, Hamas vis-à-vis the Palestinian Authority and the Mahmoud Abbas government, as well as giving Mahmoud Abbas the opportunity to try and consolidate his power as well. The Israeli complaint is that the Palestinian Authority isn't going in and destroying these bomb factories, and so that means that the Israelis have to take it upon themselves.

MR. BORGIDA

When you say that Hamas is working with other groups in the region, the Palestinian Authority and so on, are you suggesting that there is internal continuing gamesmanship among all these groups? I don't think anybody has thought that that has disappeared entirely, but is your suggestion that they are continuing to fight amongst themselves as it were?

DR. HELSING

Well, they are competing for the support of the Palestinian people. And the end game is who is going to, in a sense, be in control when and if there is a Palestinian state or greater autonomy in the Palestinian territories. And clearly Mahmoud Abbas needs to gain more popular support. And right now that is starting to happen, because over 60 percent of the Palestinians, in a very recent poll, have argued that they are supporting the ceasefire.

MR. BORGIDA

His visit here to Washington, Mr.~Abbas, was it helpful to him, a little recharging of his political batteries?

DR. HELSING

It was very helpful for him because of the welcoming that was provided by President Bush and the link that he has to the United States that has been cut off from Yasser Arafat.

MR. BORGIDA

Let's talk about one contentious issue, and that has been the fence, the wall, whatever we're calling it these days. It does sound today like the Israelis are open to maneuvering it a little bit, because there are some concerns among the Palestinian community that it is an obstacle to peace and indeed an obstacle to many Palestinians getting to work every day. What is your reaction to that?

DR. HELSING

It's not just the Palestinian community, it's the United States, it's the international community. This is part of the public relations war that in fact the Palestinians are gaining from this ceasefire because of the wall. I mean, they're calling it a wall. The Israelis have been calling it a fence. But the symbolism of this and the fact that it's cutting off Palestinian villages and communities, it's going far inside the Green Line -- that is, the ceasefire line -- is something that the Palestinians are gaining greater and greater international support, something that they had lost because of the suicide bombings.

MR. BORGIDA

We talked about the political strength of Mr. Abbas. How about Mr. Sharon as he returns from a visit to Washington as well? We might as well put that in some perspective too. How is he doing?

DR. HELSING

Well, he's got two problems. One is less than 25 percent of Israelis want to end the ceasefire. They see great value in this as well. Secondly, he's got a domestic problem, which is an investigation into campaign finance issues. His son is under a dark cloud. The economy is going bad in Israel. So he's got a lot of things to balance out right now which are weakening his popularity.

MR. BORGIDA

A little sense of what's going on in the Middle East both politically and on the ground. Middle East analyst Jeffrey Helsing with the U.S. Institute of Peace, thanks so much for being our guest today. We appreciate your time.

DR. HELSING

You're welcome.

(End of interview.)

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