Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

29 July 2003

IRAQ

• According to the New York Times, July 28, European powers that opposed the war, notably France and Germany, are contemplating whether and how to help with the after-effects. The daily, with no illusions that President Chirac and his Foreign Minister de Villepin will be able to repair the damage to their relationship with the Bush administration, nevertheless believes that the vulnerability of American soldiers in Iraq and the determination by the American military to internationalize the troop presence on the ground have changed the political and diplomatic landscape and raised the possibility that France and perhaps Germany could contribute to making peace in Iraq. The paper argues that although President Chirac has ruled out any participation of French troops in any peacekeeping or peacemaking capacity without a UN mandate, and likewise senior German officials reject the deployment of troops without a changed mandate, it is in no one’s interest that the American occupation fail. The paper reports senior officials saying French military planners are drawing up contingency plans to send troops to Iraq and France could put together a force of 8,000 to 10,000 troops. But, observes the daily, neither France nor Germany is likely to agree to a large NATO role in Iraq as long as the U.S. is the main occupying power. Former French Foreign Minister Vedrine was quoted saying: “We need to be positive and constructive, and not just snicker in our little corner saying, ‘They are in trouble.’ But at the same time, we cannot simply send men to Iraq, in my opinion, to support a policy whose purpose we don’t see. So it’s about adding troops to the G.I.’s, to do what? We need to talk about the ‘to do what.’” Complicating any rapprochement with the U.S., concludes the daily, is President’s Chirac’s clinging to his vision of a “multipolar” world in which the U.S. does not dominate. “We can no longer agree to have the law of the strongest,” he was quoted saying in a prepared statement during a visit to Malaysia last week. Turkish news agency Anatolia, July 27, reported diplomatic sources stating on Sunday, during the visit to Ankara of U.S. Central Command chief Gen. Abizaid, that the U.S. administration accepted in principle giving command to Turkey in the region where Turkish soldiers would be committed.

LIBERIA

• While an AFP dispatch, July 28, said no date has been set for the deployment of a peacekeeping force to Liberia at a meeting of west African military chiefs in Ghana, the Wall Street Journal, July 28, reported that rebels captured the second-largest city of Buchanan on Monday, depriving President Taylor of his last significant port outside the besieged capital. Gen. Yeaten, a leading government commander, reportedly confirmed the strategic city, 60 miles southeast of Monrovia, fell to rebels belonging to the Movement for Democracy in Liberia. Rebel leader Boi Bleaju Boi was quoted saying once his forces take the city they would open its port to any peacekeeping mission. In Monrovia, government and rebel forces continued to battle for strategic bridges leading from the capital’s port to its downtown. President Taylor, offered asylum by Nigeria, said he will leave only when peacekeepers arrive.

NATO-RUSSIA-GEORGIA

• According to the Russian weekly newspaper Nezavisimoye Voyennoye Obozreniye, July 25, in connection with the appearance of E-3A Sentry long-range radar detection planes in Georgian airspace and plans for their continued use, the leadership of Abkhazia came out with an official statement on the need to place Russian long-range air defense means on its territory, in particular the S-300 air defense missile systems. Reportedly in the opinion of the Abkhaz military, the Georgian side’s use of such sophisticated NATO aircraft for aerial reconnaissance of Abkhaz territory is part of Tbilisi’s plan to internationalize the Georgia-Abkhazia conflict and draw the forces of the Alliance directly into it. Russian Defense Minister Ivanov, continues the magazine, said a Russian air defense missile brigade was recently moved to the border region with Abkhazia as a response to the appearance of American reconnaissance planes in the region. A marine brigade and a detached special forces brigade of the Main Intelligence Directorate were also moved to Krasnodar Kray. Their mission is to deal with threats originating in Georgia. The Defense Ministry’s next logical step, argues the paper, may be to deploy a Russian air defense shield above Sukhumi, based on the S-300V system.