Military

SHAPE News Summary & Analysis

24 July 2003

IRAQ

• According to the Washington Post, the Pentagon has unveiled yesterday its long-awaited plan for maintaining troop strength in Iraq that involves the rotation of virtually every remaining active duty unit in the Army plus the activation of National Guard brigades and the creation of three divisions of multinational forces. The plan, comments the paper, assumes that 156,000 U.S. forces present in Iraq will have to remain well into next year and it is built upon the arrival of a third multinational division in February or March to replace the 101st Airborne Division, even though the Bush administration is trying to complete deployment of the first two multinational division later this year. Army planners, continues the daily, with more than 60 percent of the Army’s active duty combat force deployed, were forced to abandon six-month tours in favor of year-long assignments to sustain a force of that size. Under the plan, the 3rd Infantry Division would be out of Iraq by September and replaced by soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division. At the same time, the remaining Marines from the 1st Marine Expeditionary Force would be replaced by a multinational division under Polish command. In addition to the activation of at least two “enhanced” National Guard brigades, continues the newspaper, other measures have been adopted to create a large enough rotation base such as the inclusion of the 1st Cavalry Division, traditionally held in reserve against possible hostilities involving North Korea; the inclusion of the Army’s new Stryker Brigade. Army’s acting Chief of Staff Gen. Keane reportedly said the force levels in Iraq can be maintained well into next year as long as the required multinational peacekeeping forces arrive as planned.
  
  
• The Wall Street Journal writes that U.S. officials portrayed the deaths of Saddam’s two sons as a turning point in the effort to rebuild post-war in Iraq. They reportedly hope their progress in eliminating top lieutenants of the Saddam’s regime will accelerate a path to normalcy. President Bush was quoted saying: “Now, more than ever, all Iraqis can know that the former regime is gone and will not be coming back.” The paper notes, however, that some disappointment has been expressed by the Iraqi Governing Council about the fact that the brothers hadn’t been taken alive. Since many Iraqis were suspicious whether the two men were really dead, Gen. Sanchez said former top regime leaders had identified the bodies and the Pentagon will “soon” release photos of the brothers’ dead bodies. He also reportedly defended Monday’s raid, saying that U.S. soldiers tried first with bullhorns to get the four men in the house to surrender. An AFP dispatch, July 23, reported NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson hailing Wednesday the killing of Saddam’s two sons, describing them as “odious torturers” and saying their demise should improve the security situation in post-war Iraq. “I think the message getting through undoubtedly will change the climate,” he was quoted saying.

LIBERIA

• West African leaders decided yesterday to send “urgently” 1,300 Nigerian troops to Liberia as a “vanguard” of a multinational force, meeting a key condition set by Washington for U.S. military contribution, writes the Washington Times. The paper adds that the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) decision on an initial contingent came after a two-day meeting in Dakar, Senegal, which was also attended by State Department and Pentagon officials. Another condition for sending U.S. troops, recalls the daily, is the departure of Liberian President Taylor, who said yesterday he will go into exile in Nigeria on August 2. State Department spokesman Richard Boucher was quoted saying: “It’s important that the West Africans are moving forward to try to help Liberia; it’s important that they have narrowed down their military plan to the extent that they have a specific meeting on a specific set of troops that are getting ready to go in. We are working very actively with the Africans on the planning for their deployment and for how we can support them.” BBC World Service reports likewise that military and political leaders of the regional body, ECOWAS, have reached an agreement in Senegal to send two battalions of Nigerian troops to help restore peace in the country.

NATO

• In an AP dispatch carried by Stars and Stripes, a senior Icelandic Cabinet minister urged the government Monday to establish its own military forces after a decision by the U.S. to withdraw its fighter aircraft from Iceland. “Without the U.S. military forces deployed to Iceland and without the security guarantee of the 1951 Defense Agreement, this country would be defenseless against any armed bands of criminals, mercenaries or military forces that might wish to raid or occupy Iceland,” Minister of Justice Bjarnason was quoted saying. He reportedly suggested that Iceland, with a population of 280,000, should form a national guard of 500-1,000 people, with a reserve force of 21,000. Washington’s recent decision to withdraw its four remaining F-15/F-16 fighters and three rescue helicopters and refueling planes by June has upset Iceland, Prime Minister David Oddsson, who is strongly pro-American, observes the dispatch. President Bush himself has reportedly written to the Prime Minister saying the U.S. remains committed to the 1951 accord. In a similar vein, Icelandic paper Morgunbladid says Prime Minister Oddsson does not expect to have any additional discussion meetings on security issues with U.S. officials, if the outcome has already been decided in advance. He purportedly stated it would be unnecessary and useless to have such meetings, and could furthermore be harmful. He also emphasized there will still be a need to defend Iceland with air defenses noting that just recently Russian aircraft had flown into Icelandic airspace without any explainable reason. The Prime Minister reportedly applauded NATO Secretary General Lord Robertson’s stand in this defense issue, stating he had been helpful to both members, showing a good understanding of both viewpoints.

ISAF

• AFP, July 23, reports that the UN’s special envoy to Afghanistan said on Wednesday, after talks with NATO representatives it would be “desirable” to broaden the multinational force’s mandate beyond Kabul, a move the Alliance sees as premature. According to a NATO diplomat cited by the agency, Lakhdar Brahimi did not try to pressure Alliance representatives on the idea of deploying troops outside Kabul, he gave instead a “very balanced message”, stressing the “huge challenges” that remain in Afghanistan. The envoy, meanwhile, reportedly stressed that “security is the main problem, and was quoted saying: “It is a very serious problem but it is not unmanageable at all. If the commitment is there from the international community, I think soon, relatively soon, Afghanistan will stand on its own two feet.”