Military

DATE=7-23-03

TYPE=INTERVIEW

NUMBER=3-741

TITLE=LIBERIA-PEACE KEEPING TROOPS

BYLINE=DAVID BORGIDA

DATELINE=WAHINGTON

INTRODUCTION

West African leaders have decided to send a vanguard force of at least 1,300 Nigerian troops to Liberia to bring peace to the devastated nation. Taylor Seybolt of the U.S. Institute for Peace discusses these measures.

MR. BORGIDA

And now joining us, Taylor Seybolt, an Africa expert at the U.S. Institute for Peace, also a familiar friend of the program Newsline. Thanks for being here again. We appreciate it.

MR. SEYBOLT

You're welcome. My pleasure.

MR. BORGIDA

The West African leaders decided to send this force. Do you think this is high promise and an encouraging sign or perhaps a complication?

MR. SEYBOLT

Well, it's certainly a step in the right direction. I think that there is general agreement that if international forces do not intervene that the situation will only get worse. Obviously it's going to lead to questions that we haven't yet had to face without foreign troops there, so there will be complications as well. But it's a good first step.

MR. BORGIDA

And no decision yet by the United States, that's a work in progress still, although there are U.S. troops that have been sent to help provide extra security at the embassy in Monrovia. How do you think this conversation is going? I think the last time you were here we were talking about this, but at this point it's been weeks since then. What are the issues at play here for the United States as it decides whether to send more peacekeepers there?

MR. SEYBOLT

Well, obviously the United States Government has been having a very hard time deciding whether to intervene or not. We've gotten a lot of mixed messages in the media. And that means that there is certainly a big debate going on within the administration. I think the issues at play are whether or not there are enough U.S. interests at stake in Liberia to make it worth the cost and the risk involved in intervening, which are potentially considerable, on the one side, and on the other side, the argument that there are real interests involved, not only humanitarian but also the United States being able to show itself as a good global citizen. And there are I think national security interests in stabilizing the region too. Nobody wants more failed states.

MR. BORGIDA

And the truth is, in some ways it appears that there is some divided, or at least mixed, reaction on the streets of Monrovia about the United States and its presence. There seems to be some frustration with the U.S. Some of the residents of Monrovia, we have heard them quoted as saying that the United States must come soon. There are others who seem to be frustrated and angry. How would you assess the view on the street there about the United States at the moment?

MR. SEYBOLT

Well, I think frustration and anger is no surprise at all. And we've seen incredible scenes of people piling up bodies in front of the embassy.

MR. BORGIDA

Is that an act of defiance, anger, need? What is the expression, because we've seen that?

MR. SEYBOLT

It's an act of desperation really. It's anger. And it's the only way that they, I think, or the best way, that they feel that they can express their need for outside help. They're saying, look what's happening to us and our brothers and sisters.

MR. BORGIDA

And it's a very provocative image that we've seen on television, many of us, the last few days.

Let's talk a little bit about Charles Taylor, because now he's saying he's going to step down within 10 days. This is a song we've heard before, isn't it?

MR. SEYBOLT

We've heard variations on this tune quite a lot. At first Taylor said after the indictments by the court in Sierra Leone, I'm never going to step down until the indictment is withdrawn. Then he said, well, yes, I've agreed to go to Nigeria. And then I think it was only about a week ago he said, we're going to fight to the last man. Now he's say, I'll leave within 10 days.

Nobody trusts Charles Taylor, and for good reason. I don't think that anybody takes his word seriously. Although I think that there is strong indication that were he pressured to go with international forces and further diplomatic and local pressures, that he would go to Nigeria.

MR. BORGIDA

How can he be forced to go?

MR. SEYBOLT

Well, one way is certainly to send in a military intervention force.

MR. BORGIDA

Will that ipso facto mean when they arrive that he will leave? He has said that but, given the track record, can we be so sure?

MR. SEYBOLT

No, you can never be sure with Charles Taylor, although he has said that numerous times. He at first said he will only go when American troops show up. And then he said, well, he'll go when any international troops, the ECOWAS troops, show up.

I think that you have to work on the assumption that the best way to get him out is to have the troops show up. And he may go quietly, which is unlikely, and you may have to try to capture him, which could be very difficult.

MR. BORGIDA

One thing about which there is little doubt at the moment is that the fighting continues and people's lives are at stake. And I think the Defense Minister said yesterday that 600 civilians had died in recent days. The toll is getting well beyond staggering, isn't it, at this point?

MR. SEYBOLT

Nobody has confirmed that 600 figure. And part of the reason is because the streets are simply too dangerous for anybody to go out and count the bodies, as gruesome as that may sound. Certainly there are hundreds of people who have died just in the most recent fighting in the last five days. Over the course of the fighting in Liberia in recent years, out of a population of just over 3 million, approximately 200,000 people have been killed. That is staggering.

MR. BORGIDA

And more and more people are flooding into Monrovia, where they think they are going to be seeking some refuge. Is that a dangerous situation too in the capital?

MR. SEYBOLT

Well, of course, it's very dangerous. And not only are people in danger of shrapnel wounds from the shells that the rebels are lobbing in, but there is a big danger of cholera outbreaks and hunger. Because supplies of food and water are dwindling, electricity is sporadic, if there at all, and without fresh water, cholera could easily break out in crowded populations.

MR. BORGIDA

Well, the situation looks very discouraging at the moment. Taylor Seybolt of the U.S. Institute for Peace, helping us to sort out both the on-the-ground situation inside Liberia and some of the politics of the current situation. Thanks, Mr. Seybolt, for joining us. We appreciate it.

MR. SEYBOLT

Thank you very much.

(End of interview.)

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